Bitcoin advanced past $72,000 on Thursday following a record short squeeze that forced bearish traders to exit. In the past 24 hours, liquidations of leveraged crypto positions exceeded $3 billion, according to Coinglass.

Perpetual futures open interest has not yet rebounded sharply, meaning the two-day rally has been driven mostly by short covering. Glassnode's Sean Rose estimates the average US Bitcoin ETF cost basis at about $82,465. BlackRock's IBIT estimated cost basis is about $82,206; Fidelity's FBTC is about $73,447.

These levels sit well above the current market price, leaving most ETF holders underwater and waiting to break even. That dynamic creates a potential resistance zone, as many investors may sell once prices approach their break-even points. The lack of perp open interest rebuilding also suggests leveraged traders are hesitant to re-enter, which could limit upside momentum. In other words, the recent surge is not yet backed by fresh capital inflows; it is a reflection of short sellers covering their positions rather than new longs stepping in.

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Digital-asset treasury company shares remain depressed, so the old financing flywheel of issuing stock to buy Bitcoin is not yet back. A sustained move higher depends on natural spot buyers, not forced unwinds. Deribit data shows options open interest clusters near $70,000 calls and $60,000 puts, indicating where traders expect price to settle.

Macro conditions improved after Treasury buyback plans lowered yields and the dollar. Upcoming events include Jackson Hole on Aug. 27-29, Kevin Warsh's debut as chair, and the confirmation of spot flows. Additionally, the market will face the August 20, 2026 options expiry, which could shift positioning. These catalysts could either reinforce the current momentum or expose its fragility, depending on whether genuine buying emerges.

"On perps, we're looking at is a one-sided position being forced out rather than money coming in, and nobody is paying up to be long yet," according to Adam McCarthy, who leads research at LO:TECH. "This market has already burned through its short base, so the next leg has to be genuinely bought rather than squeezed."

Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, added: "The move was squeeze-driven, so holding it falls to spot flow and the persistence of ETF inflows." He also noted, "Near term, perp OI rebuilding at its post-liquidation pace would set up further squeezes, while the durable signal has to come from spot." And on catalysts: "Catalysts from here are Jackson Hole on 27-29 August, Kevin Warsh's first as chair, and whether spot flow confirms the squeeze is the tell into it."

Real buyers, not forced unwinds, drive lasting gains. The coming days will reveal whether the rally can convert into a sustained uptrend, or whether the lack of spot participation leaves it vulnerable to another pullback. For now, the market remains in a delicate balance, with the next move likely determined by whether ETF inflows resume and whether leveraged traders regain confidence.

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