Where prices stand
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,153.66 per ounce at 8:40 a.m. in Singapore, clawing back a bit after falling more than 6% in September on worries about energy-driven inflation and the prospect of higher US rates. Prices remain under the 100 day moving average.
Silver climbed 1.3% to $61.15 after posting its sharpest weekly decline since mid-July. Both platinum and palladium were higher. After three consecutive weekly advances, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
What moved markets
A cooler US jobs report and firm bond yields had traders rethinking the Fed's next steps. In September, the economy added 29,000 nonfarm jobs, falling short of every estimate in Bloomberg's survey and easing the immediate push for rapid rate hikes to confront sticky inflation. Since gold doesn't pay interest, rising rates typically weigh on its appeal.
Gold moves on rate expectations more reliably than on almost anything else. Market Briefs explains that link free every weekday.
Policy signals to watch
Odds implied by markets put the chance of an October hike near 20%, down from about 70% a week ago. Fed officials lately have been talking down the likelihood of an imminent move. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting, which featured the first rate increase in three years, are due mid-week and could offer more guidance on the path ahead.
Geopolitics and what it means for your wallet
Inflation risks haven't vanished. Oil rose as tensions in the Middle East widened, with Yemen's Saudi-backed leaders launching a military bid to retake all areas controlled by the Houthis. The Houthis are supported by Iran. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed worries about elevated borrowing costs, noting they align with global patterns, while acknowledging that some rates have reached levels not seen in more than two decades.
When jobs data shifts the Fed path, metals react before equities do. Join Market Briefs free and watch the rotation.
