Bitcoin just had one of its worst runs in years, so you would expect traders to back away from crypto. Instead, they are leaning in, and they do not agree on what comes next.
A $56 Million Bet Against Strategy
Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 on Friday. That was its lowest point since October 2024.
It is now down about 27% this year. It also sits roughly 50% below its record high.
The drop hit one stock especially hard. That stock is Strategy, which is Michael Saylor's company.
Strategy holds a huge pile of bitcoin, and it used to be called MicroStrategy. So when bitcoin moves, this stock moves with it.
Think of the stock as a bitcoin amplifier. When bitcoin drops, Strategy tends to drop harder.
One trader is betting the pain is not over. They set up an options trade that paid about $56 million up front.
Options let traders bet big with less money down. That is why a single trade can be worth tens of millions.
This trade works best if Strategy stays under $125 a share through August. In plain terms, the bet wins if the stock does not bounce back.
So why all the gloom? Saylor's company recently sold some of its bitcoin.
It was the first such sale in years. The company is known for buying bitcoin and holding it, so even a small sale spooked investors.
Crypto swings like this are exactly what we make sense of in Market Briefs every morning - five minutes a day, plus a free investing masterclass when you join.
A $21 Million Bet On A Coinbase Comeback
Not every trader is bearish. Another one made the opposite bet.
This trader put about $21 million into options on Coinbase. The wager is that Coinbase stock climbs.
Coinbase is the biggest crypto exchange in the U.S. That means it is where most Americans buy and sell coins.
Its stock has been beaten up this year, along with the rest of crypto. This bet is more hopeful than the one against Strategy.
The trader is paying up for it, not just collecting cash. The options also run into late August, which gives the stock time to recover.
For the bet to pay off, Coinbase would need to rise above roughly $183 a share. That is about 13% higher than where it traded on Monday.
Both trades were among the biggest in the options market that day. A popular bitcoin fund, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, was busy too.
One well-known voice is in the comeback camp. Tom Lee chairs BitMine and runs research at FundStrat.
He said bitcoin "remains the soundest money." In his view, it can take a hit and keep going.
What to Watch
Two traders just put tens of millions into opposite calls on crypto. That split is the real signal here.
The smart money did not run during the sell-off. It just broke into two camps.
Bitcoin has since clawed back above $60,000. But the big bets still point in different directions.
By August, one of these traders is going to look very smart.
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