What happened to Chilean output
Chile, which supplies more than one fifth of the world's mined copper, just notched its weakest quarter in at least two decades over the three months ending in September. The slump was centered at the biggest operations, with Codelco- and BHP Group-operated mines accounting for 77% of the net decrease. Cochilco tied the drop to accidents and wild weather on top of poorer ore quality, maintenance, and other interruptions that crimped processing and recoveries.
Forecasts and global picture
Cochilco now expects 4.94 million metric tons of copper this year, down from a prior 5.27 million, an 8.4% year over year fall. For 2027, the forecast sits at 5.08 million tons, which the commission says implies about a 3% rebound from this year's level. Globally, the agency projects mined supply to contract 0.6% this year and then rise 3.4% in 2027, with Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo together making up about 37% of that increase. Against that backdrop, Cochilco lifted its price outlook to 6.18 dollars per pound for 2026 and 5.95 dollars for 2027, up from 5.95 and 5.10.
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The market and your portfolio
Even with better mine output ahead, Cochilco still sees a tight refined market next year, with a surplus equal to only 0.8% of consumption. According to the agency, refined demand is set to expand by 1.5% in the current year and 1.8% in 2027, while China eases to 1% from 1.6% and areas outside China account for about two-thirds of the increase expected next year. The bottom line: supply is constrained while demand holds up, leaving a slim buffer if disruptions flare or consumption surprises to the upside.
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