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Asia Looks Better Placed Than Europe to Ride Out Diesel Squeeze

Andre Savage
Published Sep 29, 2026
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Summary:
  • Asia is set up to handle a budding diesel crunch better than Europe as the Trump administration weighs export curbs.
  • Spot cargoes into Northwest Europe averaged about $174 a ton above Singapore so far in September, up from $27 in May, based on General Index data that include freight.
  • With the Middle East conflict now in its seventh month and Russia keeping a lengthy halt on shipments following repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, supplies have tightened, and a potential US export ban could push prices abroad even higher, especially in Europe.

The price gap that tells the story

European buyers are paying a steep premium for diesel versus Asia. Using monthly averages that include freight, Bloomberg's examination of General Index data finds that spot deliveries into Northwest Europe have been about $174 a ton costlier than Singapore so far this month, up from roughly $27 in May. That widening spread signals Europe's market is running far hotter than Asia's.

Why supply feels squeezed

Diesel powers the messy, real-world economy, from trucks and tractors to factory floors, and the market is tight. Seven months into the Middle East war, supplies are feeling the strain. In addition, Russia enacted an extended suspension of shipments following multiple rounds of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries.

With US pump costs hitting records, President Donald Trump has considered prohibiting US exports, and the Trump administration is weighing export curbs. Analysts caution that this step could turbocharge prices abroad, particularly in Europe.

When markets reveal uncertainty, steady planning helps protect and grow your savings. Join Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh on September 29th for a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, where he shows how we're spotting investment opportunities as the dollar falls. Save your spot.

Asia's buffer

Refiners across Asia have lined up much of their crude feedstock for the coming months, letting them keep turning out fuels even if shipping in the Persian Gulf stays choppy. India says it intends to keep honoring its diesel contracts abroad. China - usually a big exporter - has relaxed prior restrictions on flows observed during the conflict. Elsewhere, Japan's exports may rebound. Sparta Commodities SA's senior oil market analyst, June Goh, said, "Based on current refining operating rates and crude availability, there are no major issues with diesel supply in Asia." "In fact, the likelihood is for Asia supporting Europe with diesel exports if Trump really bans US exports."

What it could mean for your money

If Asia can keep barrels flowing, it may cushion local spikes, but a tight global diesel market still filters through to shipping costs, farm operations and industrial margins. If Europe keeps wearing the highest premiums, those ripple effects could feel sharper there than in Asia.

Keeping a calm, diversified approach lets you preserve capital and seek growth. Our CEO Jaspreet Singh is hosting a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, on September 29th. Sign up free to join him live.

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Blogs

September 29, 2026
Why Is Gold Going Down? A 5.2% Treasury Yield Just Took Its Job
By Andre Savage
  • President Trump rejected Iran's deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jumped back up, and gold fell instead of rising.
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  • The US government holds about 328,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $25 billion, and since a 2025 executive order it keeps seized coins instead of selling them.
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September 25, 2026
BRIEFS EXCLUSIVE: 43% Of Respondents Say Bills Outran Their Income Over Past Two Years
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September 25, 2026
The Economy Is Booming. So Why Did Stocks and Bonds Fall Together?
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  • Stocks and bonds fell at the same time, which is not how the two markets normally behave, because Treasury yields above 5% now compete with stocks for investors' money.
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September 24, 2026
The 2026 Economic Reset Is Starting: Are We in a Recession, or Is the Pain Still Ahead?
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  • The Federal Reserve has flipped from stimulating the economy to fighting inflation with higher interest rates, while the White House still wants growth at almost any cost.
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September 23, 2026
Are We in a Recession? Without AI, America Might Already Be in One - and Washington Knows It
By Kalbir Talwar
  • The White House attributes about three quarters of U.S. economic growth to AI, and many believe the economy would already be in a recession without it.
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September 22, 2026
Will Interest Rates Go Down in 2026? Where the Money Moves Either Way
By Kalbir Talwar
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September 21, 2026
How the Federal Reserve Makes Money - and Why It Just Posted Its Biggest Loss Ever
By Kalbir Talwar
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September 18, 2026
Kevin Warsh Just Defied Trump: What the Fed Rate Hike Means for Your Money
By Cierra Seay
  • The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 in a unanimous vote led by Kevin Warsh, the chairman President Trump appointed to cut them.
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  • The war with Iran is pushing up oil, grocery and chip prices, another hike is likely in 2026, and recession talk is about to get louder.
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September 17, 2026
Why America Bailed Out the Yen: The Japan Carry Trade, the Dollar and Your Mortgage Rate
By Milena Thomas
  • In July 2026 the US sent money to steady the yen because Japan is the largest foreign owner of US debt, and Washington needs Japan to keep lending.
  • For decades the Japan carry trade let Wall Street borrow yen at essentially 0% and pour it into US stocks, real estate and Treasuries, and rising Japanese rates are shutting that off.
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Read More
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