UBS's latest index covers 23 big-city housing markets, with Lisbon and Seoul joining the roster this year. Zurich led the risk table and Tokyo placed second, and those two alone were tagged at high risk of a substantial correction. One step down, in the elevated-risk bucket, sit Dubai, Seoul, Geneva, Lisbon and Miami. UBS also noted that Miami held the top spot a year ago.
In the Asia Pacific group, Sydney, Hong Kong and Singapore were judged to carry moderate risk.
UBS says demand in Tokyo's housing market continues to be underpinned by gains in household buying power, inflows of international migrants, and overseas investors targeting prime apartments. At the same time, rising costs are steering more locals toward suburban neighborhoods and the rental market.
Appetite for luxury condominiums in Tokyo's core is expected to stay solid. UBS adds that greater female participation in the workforce should further lift household purchasing power. Even so, there are hints the current upswing is nearing its limits, and any additional rise in borrowing costs would make owning less attractive and raise the odds of a correction.
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UBS says in many cities home prices have pulled away from local incomes, putting ownership out of reach for many. Hong Kong ranks as the least affordable market in the survey. Following a strong upswing since mid-2025 - supported by lower mortgage rates and increased demand driven by professionals relocating from mainland China - a 60-square-meter home in Hong Kong now costs about 15 years of earnings for an average skilled service worker.
In Tokyo, buying a 60-square-meter apartment near the city center costs more than 10 times the annual income of the average skilled service worker. In Seoul, Singapore, and a number of other cities, the price-to-income ratio is above 10 as well.
The index spotlights where prices have outrun incomes and where higher financing costs could bite next. If you have exposure to any of these markets, keep an eye on cities flashing elevated or high risk and on affordability metrics that are stretching.
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