People familiar with the discussions, including some briefed by Iranian officials, say Tehran is skeptical it can lock in terms to end hostilities with the US and get the Strait of Hormuz reopened before the midterms. Meetings in New York around the UN General Assembly delivered little progress, and Iranian officials see a strong likelihood of tensions rising after Nov. 3.
Iranian officials maintain they're willing to negotiate but doubt President Donald Trump's team would honor an agreement. The White House is also distrustful of Tehran, and Trump has said before that he doubts a deal will be in place before the midterms. On Monday, he told reporters that US representatives were working through intermediaries but refused to elaborate, while adding, "We're going to win," and, "it's going to go pretty quickly."
A US official said there will not be a deal unless concerns about Iran's nuclear program are addressed. The official said Trump is prepared to offer sanctions relief and release frozen funds if Iran makes concrete progress on the nuclear file.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met last week with Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. One person said Araghchi remained in the US for additional discussions conducted via mediators. ISNA reported that a session involving Araghchi was set for the local morning on Monday to examine recent proposals and exchange views, and that no US representative would attend. In the on-again, off-again talks, Pakistan and Qatar have served as the leading go-betweens.
Mediators are now aiming for something different from the memorandum Iran and the US signed in mid-June. That arrangement produced a ceasefire and briefly increased maritime traffic through Hormuz, but it fell apart in about two weeks, before the sides made meaningful progress toward a permanent peace. US politicians widely criticized the MOU as giving Iran too much financially, especially via sanctions relief. Iran also kept limiting shipping, and volumes stayed well below pre-war levels.
According to two people familiar with the matter, Washington has conveyed through go-betweens that it wants Iran to make an explicit commitment to reopen the strait and to give ground on parts of its nuclear program. Tehran says it offered to have the strait reopened within seven days if Washington takes certain steps, and Iranian leaders have said in the past that the US must lift the naval blockade and oil sanctions to allow more ships to pass through the waterway. Trump said Saturday he rejected the proposal.
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Crude flickered higher on the headlines. Brent rose 2% on Monday to about $106.20 a barrel as hopes faded for a quick breakthrough on Hormuz. Energy has become pricier since the US and Israel launched the war in late February, a move that has weighed on Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterms, where Democrats are widely expected to gain ground.
Separately, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman did not provide comment right away when asked. Earlier reporting from the Wall Street Journal said envoys are urging Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program to restart peace talks and tackle an issue Trump has elevated to a top priority. Speaking at the UN last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon and that it will not give up its right to advance nuclear technology for economic ends.
Bottom line for your money: watch oil and shipping risk. If talks stall and the waterway stays tight, energy prices can remain punchy, which feeds into everything from gas to groceries. If mediators land concrete movement on Hormuz and nuclear issues, some of that pressure could ease.
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