If you felt more uneasy about your money in September, you were not alone. The Conference Board said its confidence gauge dropped to 81.9, with people pointing to higher prices and a softer feel in the job market. Said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board: "Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024."
Under the hood, the Present Situation index slid 7.9 points to 109.3, and the Expectations Index - a six month look ahead - eased 5.9 points to 63.6.
Respondents flagged inflation and the labor outlook as trouble spots. The spread between those saying jobs are "plentiful" and those calling them "hard to get" narrowed by 2.5 percentage points to just 1.7%, a sign of cooling labor confidence. On prices, the average expected inflation rate climbed to 6.1% - up by 0.3 percentage points from August - while the median expectation likewise rose to 5.1%.
Those changes coincided with a pickup in inflation expectations, driven by ongoing uncertainty over the Iran war, a theme reflected in the jump in Treasury yields and mortgage rates across markets.
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Separately on Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said August job openings dipped to 7.08 million, down 256,000 from July, with notable declines in professional and business services and in health care related roles. Economists had looked for 7.2 million. Hires ticked up, quits were little changed, and layoffs edged lower.
The broader picture lines up with other readings: the University of Michigan reported sentiment fell 7% in September, reaching its second lowest level on record. Put together, softer confidence, higher expected inflation, and fewer job openings can translate to more cautious consumers and bumpier borrowing costs. That mix affects everyday decisions like when to refinance, how much to spend on big purchases, and how much cushion to keep in cash.
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