National Bank Financial's chief economist Stéfane Marion brought upbeat energy to the Bloomberg Canadian Finance Conference in New York on Tuesday, even flashing a baseball cap emblazoned with "Make Canada Investable Again." He acknowledged that population gains have decelerated and that tensions over trade with the US are intensifying, yet he said, "I'm the most optimistic I've been on growth prospects in over a decade because I think we're writing a new chapter on business investment." He argued that Canada is at last giving serious priority to business investment after ten years of what he called stagnant growth, and he projects a swell of foreign capital.
Marion pointed to Prime Minister Mark Carney's agenda as a meaningful reset after years of weak corporate spending, emphasizing plans to advance major projects, streamline regulations, lower taxes, and boost competition. "We can now exploit our comparative advantages," he said, citing the country's low-cost natural resources - such as natural gas and electricity - as a prime example. With artificial intelligence driving heavy demand for affordable power, he argued that those inputs can make Canada a more attractive trade partner and help other countries keep a lid on costs.
He also expects the US-Canada trading relationship to endure, saying it isn't "going away anytime soon." "We're part of the solution to allow the US to enjoy lower inflation if we work in partnership with them."
Foreign buyers have already snapped up record amounts of Canadian government bonds as federal issuance climbed, Marion noted. But in his view the real win is long-horizon money flowing directly into businesses and projects.
To turn that around, he highlighted recent moves: Carney convened leading global asset managers in Toronto for the first Canada Investment Summit, and afterward introduced headline economic legislation aimed at cutting federal permit reviews to one year and limiting exposure to labor strife. Marion further tied a decade of underinvestment to deeper regional tensions, arguing that recent measures - among them backing a new Alberta oil pipeline and boosting Quebec's electrical capacity - could temper separatist pressures. "I think the referendum fears right now are just resentment for the past 10 years," he said. "Ottawa got the message recently and by deploying these new policies, there'll be a lot less frustration," he said.
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The Bank of Canada sets policy again on Oct. 28, with the key rate at 2.25%. Traders in overnight swaps see roughly a coinflip chance of a hike at that meeting and are pricing 100 basis points of increases by June. Marion anticipates hikes next year, largely reflecting fiscal tailwinds and the chance that trade frictions with the US get resolved.
He warned that stronger investment could lift demand and inflation pressures. "The key reason why I see the Bank of Canada raising rates next year is not so much about the second round effects of the energy prices or the energy shock," he said. "It's more about the deployment of fiscal policy that might be more inflationary than previously assumed."
Bottom line for your wallet: if Canada follows through on faster permits, cheaper power, and more foreign direct investment, the growth map could shift toward project-heavy sectors and regions. Keep an eye on how that translates into jobs, wages, and borrowing costs where you live.
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