Berlin-based HelloFresh cut its 2026 guidance late Thursday, trimming both its revenue and profit expectations after failing to pull in enough busy parents during the crucial back-to-school period. The company now projects revenue will fall 9% to 11% in 2026, versus a prior view for a 3% to 6% decline, and it lowered expected adjusted Ebitda to €350 million to €370 million from €375 million to €425 million. The company said slower client acquisition reflected reduced marketing spending.
Investors did not wait around. The shares sank as much as 15% on Friday and were down 9.4% at €2.29 by 11:30 a.m. in Frankfurt, with both the stock and the bonds touching all-time lows. The company's high-yield note due 2031 fell by up to 6.8 cents per euro, the steepest one-day slide since it was sold in July, and at 11:30 a.m. it was quoted at 82.4 cents, down 4.8 cents. That €350 million debut bond started slipping within a day of issuance.
HelloFresh attributed the miss to weaker customer sign-ups during the back-to-school push and a pullback in marketing. It also cited a tougher backdrop for households after an energy-price shock tied to the conflict in the Middle East, along with severe winter storms in the US. Stifel's Clément Genelot kept a sell rating, writing, "Questions will inevitably emerge regarding the company's ability to properly manage its marketing strategy." A team at Barclays led by Andrew Ross wrote, "The starting point for growth next year is likely to be notably negative," adding, "Logical trends suggest softness continuing."
After booming during the pandemic, HelloFresh has faced a comedown as meal-kit demand normalized. Management has been reshaping the business to focus on fewer customers who spend more. The balance sheet has also felt the pinch. S&P Global Ratings cut the company to below investment grade in May, pointing to intense competition and pressure on disposable incomes.
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The swift repricing in both the shares and the 2031 bond shows how quickly confidence can shift when growth gets reset. If you follow consumer names or hold European high yield, this is a fresh reminder to watch demand drivers like marketing intensity and household budgets, not just headline guidance.
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