For most of his career, a strong economy was the one card Trump could always play. Right now it's the card pulling him down, with his net approval hitting -25 points - the lowest any president has scored in the Economist's tracker since 2009.
Voters usually grade Trump hardest on prices, and that's exactly where he's bleeding. His net rating on inflation and the cost of living has sunk to -43 points.
The trigger is energy. A standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane that carries a big chunk of the world's oil, has kept crude high and pump prices higher.
Gas averaged more than $4 a gallon last week, up from closer to $3 a year ago. That jump feeds straight into how voters feel about the wider economy.
The White House calls this short-term pain for long-term stability. Trump put it more bluntly to reporters, saying he doesn't think about Americans' financial situations when it comes to talks with Iran.
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The cracks are showing in the part of the electorate that almost never moves. Since just before the Iran war began, Trump's approval among his own 2024 voters has dropped 6 points to 76%.
It's a smaller slide among Republicans and self-described MAGA supporters, but it's a slide all the same. When the loyal voters soften, the floor gets lower.
Congress is reacting too, with four Republicans crossing party lines last week to back a resolution aimed at limiting the administration's military operations against Iran.
The midterms are the real test. An economy grade was supposed to be Trump's shield heading into them, and it's the thing cracking first.
Gas prices will decide how much lower this goes.
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