Hershey sent a team into Texas grocery stores. They stand near the registers and watch.
The team wants to see what people on food aid do now, since new rules say those shoppers can no longer buy candy with their benefits. That small change is worth a lot of money.
More states are blocking federal food aid from buying soda, candy, and other sweet items. As of May, the USDA had approved these limits in 23 states.
Those 23 states cover about one in three people on SNAP. Most of the rules target sweet drinks and candy, not groceries across the board.
The effect still adds up fast, and one research firm thinks the rules could cut up to $830 million from food and drink sales this year. Shoppers will either switch products or just buy less.
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The names most at risk are the ones that fill the candy aisle. They include Kraft Heinz, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, General Mills, Hershey, and Nestle.
All of them sell items caught up in the new rules. Kroger's CEO said shoppers are already careful with their money.
Smaller benefits and higher prices at the gas pump add to that squeeze. But the biggest target may not be a food maker at all.
Walmart takes in about a quarter of every SNAP grocery dollar, while Kroger, Costco, and Amazon trail far behind. That share makes the giant store the most exposed name of all.
There is also less aid to go around now. One estimate says 3.5 million people have dropped off SNAP since a law last year made it harder to qualify.
Many food giants are not waiting to see how this plays out. Hershey is asking SNAP shoppers in Texas how their buying is changing.
Those talks give it an early read on demand. The bigger push goes beyond what people can buy.
Iowa just put part of the "Make America Healthy Again" movement into law. The law bans dyes like Red 40 and Yellow 5 from most school meals.
Changing the dyes in dozens of products is like redoing the recipe for a whole store at once. Still, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, and Target all plan to drop some artificial colors by 2027 or sooner.
J.M. Smucker sees a smaller hit, and its CEO said the changes have had no real effect so far. But its Hostess snacks, like Twinkies and Donettes, could get pulled in if states widen the rules.
The current rules mostly hit candy and soda. The big question is whether states stretch them to cover snack cakes and other treats.
That wider net would pull far more products into the mix. For now, the candy aisle is the test. The register will tell the rest.
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