Kenya's central bank is sitting tight. It left its benchmark interest rate at 8.75% for the third meeting in a row, and the decision surprised no one.
That rate is the starting point for what commercial banks charge their customers. Leaving it alone, or moving it, eventually shows up in the cost of credit.
All five economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the hold. Governor Kamau Thugge said the goal is "to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored within the target range, and the exchange rate remains stable."
That stability comes with a catch, though. Thugge said the outlook depends on "a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East."
The committee said it will keep tracking oil prices and any knock-on effects on inflation, along with other shifts in the global and domestic economy. It stands ready to take further action if needed.
If the war cools down, inflation should behave. If not, the bank's plan may have to change.
The pressure is already visible in the numbers. Consumer prices rose 6.5% in July, a small step up from 6.4% in June, as war-driven fuel costs filtered into food and transport prices.
At 6.5%, inflation is within the bank's 2.5% to 7.5% target band, but closer to the upper edge than the middle. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, ticked up to 3.2% from 3.1%.
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That looks small, but it points to broader price pressure from higher gasoline costs. The central bank still expects inflation to stay in the band in the near term, assuming the Middle East cools down.
There are other risks, too. Add a bad corn harvest and a likely strong El Niño, and prices could climb further.
Kenya is not alone in waiting. Central banks in South Africa and Australia are also holding rates steady as the US-Iran conflict shakes up energy and fertilizer markets.
That matters beyond fuel tanks. Fertilizer is a major input for farming, so when its price jumps, food prices often follow.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil shipments, is effectively impassable. Maritime risks have spread to the Red Sea, making shipping costlier and less predictable.
When a key shipping route is blocked, shipping costs climb, and those costs eventually show up in the price of goods. That is the channel the central bank is worried about.
Kenya's currency is holding up well. The shilling has stayed in a narrow range against the dollar, helped by foreign-exchange reserves at a record high.
There are encouraging signs at home, too. Lending to businesses and households expanded by 10.2% in July, with the strongest gains in trade, construction, and farming.
Bad debt is also easing. The share of loans unlikely to be repaid dropped to 14.6% in July, down from 15.4% in April, as conditions improved in manufacturing and real estate.
For borrowers, the hold means loan rates in Kenya are not going up because of this decision. Credit is still growing, and the drop in bad debt suggests banks feel more confident.
For investors with exposure to Kenya, the steady shilling and the drop in bad loans are the reassuring parts.
For everyone else, the bridge is oil. When fuel costs rise, they land quickly in food and transport prices, as the July numbers show.
That chain connects a central bank decision in Nairobi to your own shopping basket. A stable shilling also matters for anyone buying imported goods, since a steady currency keeps those prices from swinging wildly.
The next few months could bring either continued calm or a policy shift, depending on events far beyond Kenya's borders. The peace and weather that made this meeting boring are not guaranteed.
If the conflict escalates or the harvest fails, expect the cost of fuel and food to feel it first.
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