The Iran war is weighing on Germany's economy. Oddly, the cure is tied to the same war.
Berlin's answer is a wave of defense spending. That is what keeps the country growing at all.
Germany's central bank is called the Bundesbank. It now expects the economy to grow just 0.5% this year, a small step down from its last call.
The deeper cut was to 2027, which it nearly halved to 0.8%. The Iran war is the main reason for the trim.
That cut to 2027 stung the most. It signals the rebound many hoped for keeps slipping further out.
GDP is the total value of everything a country makes. In Germany it has barely grown for years, so even a small step up is a change.
Even so, the pace is slow. Households and firms will feel little of it this year.
Bank president Joachim Nagel was blunt about the risk. He said the shaky world backdrop makes any forecast "a risky adventure."
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The thing holding the economy up is government money. Berlin is spending big on defense and roads, and that spending feeds demand for goods and services.
The defense and building push is large. It should add about 1.3 points to growth through 2028.
Exports are slowly picking up too. They should return to steady growth over 2026 and give the recovery a second leg to stand on.
Home building is also set to pick up. That adds another small lift to demand.
Strong wage gains are helping as well, since bigger paychecks let households keep spending. That supports demand even while business stays careful.
Think of it like a backstop. The private economy is soft, so the government steps in to catch the slack.
Prices are the other worry. Inflation is set to run near 2.9% this year, cooling slower than hoped.
That is partly the Iran war, which pushed fuel prices up. High wage growth is keeping prices sticky too.
By 2028 the bank sees inflation easing back toward 2%. The path down is just slower than it looked a year ago.
The spending also pushes government debt higher. With tax cuts on top, the yearly gap is set to widen in the years ahead.
The bet is that money spent now turns into stronger growth later. The 2027 cut just made that bet harder to win.
Investors will watch whether the spending sparks real growth. They will also watch how fast the debt climbs.
The war and energy costs are the wild cards. Both could knock the plan off course.
Germany dodged a recession this year. The debt bill still lands later.
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