Bitcoin usually climbs when big money gets excited about the future. Right now that excitement is going to a rocket company, not crypto.
The company is Elon Musk's SpaceX. And bitcoin is paying the price.
SpaceX is going public. That means it's selling shares to investors for the first time.
Musk set out to raise about $75 billion. Demand blew past that, with a reported $250 billion in orders.
All that money has to come from somewhere. Some of it is leaving bitcoin.
The coin has slid to around $61,500, well below its October record high.
Traders are watching the SpaceX debut closely. They're using it as a gauge of risk appetite.
Crypto market maker Wintermute called it "the next real catalyst." A smooth launch would cheer the market, while a weak one would spook it.
The whole crypto market has been jumpy for weeks. A sharp drop in chip stocks last Friday didn't help.
JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon piled on with a fresh crypto warning this week. That only added to the jittery mood.
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Bitcoin isn't falling on bad crypto news. It's losing a tug-of-war for the same dollars.
SpaceX is one of three giants headed for the market. ChatGPT-maker OpenAI and Claude-maker Anthropic are close behind.
Google's parent, Alphabet, also pulled $80 billion from the market this month. That's a lot of cash leaving other bets.
More demand for crypto rivals means less cash for crypto itself. When AI and space grab the spotlight, bitcoin tends to cool.
Oddly, SpaceX itself owns a stash of bitcoin. So the rocket maker and the coin are tied together now.
Not everyone agrees the IPO matters for bitcoin. One analyst says the coin runs on its own four-year cycle.
In his view, the two don't fight for the same buyers. Bitcoin marches to its own beat.
Some crypto fans aren't worried at all. Famed bull Tom Lee still calls bitcoin "the soundest money" around.
A few analysts even see a bright side for bitcoin. They argue it still works as a hedge when AI trades get too crowded.
SpaceX is selling stock at $135 a share. That values the company near $1.75 trillion.
Wall Street's biggest banks are running the sale. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are all on the deal.
About 30% of the shares are set aside for everyday investors. That's a big slice for a deal this large.
The stock is set to start trading on Friday under the ticker SPCX. That first day will show if risk appetite is back.
Musk has another prize on the line too. He's on track to become the world's first trillionaire if the deal goes through.
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