The market for mergers and acquisitions has been quiet for a while. But now a handful of boutique investment banks are reporting that their advisory business is waking up.
Lazard, Evercore, and PJT Partners all say deal backlogs are near record levels as 2026 progresses. At Lazard, the number of conflict clearances - the early steps a bank takes when it starts working on a potential deal - jumped 40% from a year ago.
What is a conflict clearance? It is basically a sign that serious talks are happening. If a bank is asking for clearance, a deal is probably in the works.
The forward look is even stronger. That suggests the banks see this as more than just a short-term bump.
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So what is driving the uptick? Larger corporate deals are leading the way. Companies are doing big strategic acquisitions, and that is making up for a long stretch of slow activity from private-equity firms, which have been sitting on the sidelines.
Geopolitical uncertainty and the disruption from artificial intelligence are also playing a role. Both create reasons for companies to buy or sell - and also reasons for them to be careful. "We think that these activity levels can continue to grind higher," said Paul Taubman, CEO of PJT Partners. Taubman added that there is what he called a "call option" - a chance for a bigger jump if macroeconomic conditions get tougher.
"We're also seeing activity and expect some activity coming out of software and AI, and the impact that AI will have on some of those software companies," he said.
The catch: The recovery is real, but it is not a sprint. Taubman described it as a steady improvement, not something that will give you whiplash.
Rising M&A activity is usually a good sign for the broader market. When companies feel confident enough to buy each other, it often means they see growth ahead. And the banks that advise on those deals - Lazard, Evercore, PJT Partners - stand to benefit directly.
But the executives are not popping champagne yet. Private-equity dealmaking is still stuck in a rut. Peter Orszag, Lazard's CEO, pointed out that the real question is when private-equity M&A will take off again, and that depends on a tricky balance between valuations and the demand for cash.
For investors, the takeaway is more about the direction than the destination. The deal pipeline is filling up. Software and AI are creating new opportunities. And if the economy gets bumpier, that could actually speed things up rather than slow them down.
That might sound backward. But in the world of M&A, uncertainty often pushes companies to act - especially when they see a chance to buy at a good price. The banks are betting that trend has room to run.
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