India's decision in late August to remove wheat export restrictions, helped by plentiful domestic supply, reopened a nearby, lower-cost channel for Bangladesh. Local buyers have already booked more than 200,000 tons, marking the first substantial purchases from India since 2022. Before India's May 2022 ban, it supplied nearly 70% of Bangladesh's wheat because transit was fast and freight was cheap. Most of the renewed flow is expected to move by rail, according to people familiar with the trades.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has upended grain routes, with repeated attacks hitting ports and terminals and choking exports from the Black Sea, one of the world's key shipping hubs. That squeeze has pushed importers across Asia, Africa and Europe to hunt for alternatives and continues to strain food security for some cash‑strapped buyers. Following India's ban, Bangladesh sourced from Argentina, Canada, Russia and Ukraine, and roughly 40% of purchases originated in the Black Sea region.
Higher global prices have made Indian wheat, typically not the cheapest on world markets, more appealing for nearby buyers. Delivered offers into Bangladesh are coming in around $305 to $326 per ton, according to people with knowledge of the trades. Separately, buyers in Sri Lanka secured about 60,000 tons at around $325 per ton ahead of shipment.
By contrast, according to Meghna Group of Industries' senior deputy general manager, Taslim Shahriar, Bangladeshi buyers now shell out over $450 per ton for Australian wheat, which used to be priced below $380. "Unless the Russia-Ukraine crisis is resolved, supply remains critical," he said.
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Chicago wheat futures jumped to a more than three year high last month before easing. "There will probably be a market for Indian wheat in neighboring countries," said Abhinav Vijay, a director at Agrocorp International Pte Ltd. Vladimir Zinkovski, who heads S&P Global Energy's Asia-Pacific crop research, said Bangladesh's primary hurdle is affordability, not availability, and he added that elevated prices may increase rice consumption. "India has the potential to become a meaningful additional source of regional wheat supply."
If you feel rising food costs at the checkout, this is part of it. The state-run Trading Corporation of Bangladesh says refined wheat flour prices in Dhaka rose 17% over the past month. Wheat is the country's second most consumed cereal, so pricier imports feed straight into inflation at a time overall consumer prices are already elevated.
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