If you needed a sign that obesity drugs are remaking pharma, here it is: Aspen's distribution of Eli Lilly's Mounjaro in South Africa pulled in around 1.5 billion rand. The product accounted for roughly two fifths of the growth in South Africa's private pharma market over the past year, according to CEO Stephen Saad.
The company's manufacturing shakeup is filtering through to results too, with normalized earnings from continuing operations up 28% in the year to June on a constant-currency basis. Even so, the shares declined by up to 11%, the steepest single-day drop in a year.
Saad said GLP-1 medicines could become Aspen's biggest category. "We definitely believe it's got potential to be our biggest product," he said. Aspen has applied to sell Mounjaro in Nigeria and Kenya and is aiming to get approvals during the 2027 financial year. After that, it plans to extend into French-speaking West Africa and add markets such as Ethiopia and Tanzania.
Aspen is seeking to handle distribution of Lilly's oral GLP-1 pill as well. And Novo Nordisk is seeking South African clearance for an oral version of Wegovy, adding to the coming wave of weight-loss options.
Aspen is preparing a generic injectable semaglutide of its own. It received Canadian regulatory approval in July and anticipates its first sales of semaglutide in the 2027 financial year. Whether it can launch in Canada hinges on getting active ingredient from India's Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd., where supply has been temporarily constrained. Saad said Aspen expects more clarity on supply this month.
The company has also filed its semaglutide for approval in South Africa and is seeking registrations in Brazil and additional emerging markets. It ultimately plans to manufacture locally in South Africa, though there is no timeline yet for a domestic launch.
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Saad said he expects generic GLP-1s globally to be priced at least 50% below current branded options, which could broaden access. Aspen sees lower prices driving much stronger demand and is engaging with health insurers - among them Discovery Ltd. - the company that runs South Africa's largest administrator for such plans.
Aspen said it repurchased 13.3 million shares for approximately 1.98 billion rand, roughly 3% of the share count at the time the buyback authority was approved. That financial housekeeping arrived alongside the sharp stock pullback.
For you, the takeaway is simple: if cheaper GLP-1s arrive and insurers get on board, out-of-pocket costs for weight-loss and diabetes care could look very different in a couple of years. And as Aspen pushes into more African markets and sorts supply, availability could improve right alongside the price.