What is driving the shortage
Automakers and builders say three fixes would help: faster training, steadier immigration channels and a mindset shift that makes hands-on work a first choice, not a fallback. Yet demand is climbing faster, especially where data centers are going up.
The Association of General Contractors of America ties the squeeze to two forces at once: a surge in data center construction and tougher immigration enforcement. Its September survey found labor shortfalls are the leading reason projects slip, and half of contractors reported too many candidates need more training before they can be hired.
Pay is rising in the trades, but workers also point to long commutes, low-paid apprenticeships and a sense that office work gets more respect. That frictions the pipeline just as projects multiply.
Immigration enforcement moves to center stage
Roofing is a case study. John Burns Research and Consulting reported many roofers it surveyed this year view enforcement as a drag on business.
Elizabeth LaJeunesse, a vice president at John Burns, said the strength of views on enforcement was striking. Duane Musser of the National Roofing Contractors Association called workforce policy a priority, saying, "Advocating for solutions to workforce shortages, including expanded career and technical education programs and bipartisan immigration reform, is a top priority."
In an unattributed statement to Stateline, the Department of Homeland Security said, "those who are here legally and are not breaking other laws have nothing to fear" and added, "we will continue to enforce our nation's laws and remove illegal aliens from American communities." Also in September, a Trump-appointed federal judge paused the government's practice of going onto construction sites to check immigration status without a warrant. One Alabama construction worker of Mexican descent reported being detained three times since 2025 despite presenting a state driver's license and said he is a U.S. citizen born in Florida.
A Stateline analysis last year found that immigrants constitute most workers among roofers, painters and stucco masons.
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The training gap and where demand is hottest
A September report from the Alliance for America's Skilled Trades, whose members include Ford Motor Company, toolmakers and others, estimates the economy will need about 1.7 million new skilled trade workers each year through 2035. Training programs are producing just over half of that, and only about half of enrollees complete their programs.
The alliance highlighted nine states where demand is high but the talent pool is thin: Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas, with Florida ranking first for demand and near the bottom for supply - ahead of only Maine - as construction expands and many current workers approach retirement. Leaders of the state's Association of General Contractors chapter say they hope advances in workforce AI will entice more young adults into roles that chatbots can't replace. Other states have the opposite problem. By contrast, Indiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Wyoming are in the top 10 for labor supply, yet they land in the bottom 10 for demand based on recent hiring and projections.
Employers are being asked to help close the gap, particularly where AI infrastructure is involved. Speaking for Meta, Dina Powell McCormick, the company's president and vice chairman, said, "America needs hundreds of thousands of electricians, welders and fiber technicians to build AI infrastructure," and added that the alliance is "paying for the training, removing the barriers that keep people from stepping into these careers, and guaranteeing a job at the end of it." Ford Motor Company, together with the Ad Council, unveiled a publicity campaign to draw young people to the trades, including a video that says "millions of skilled trade jobs are waiting for people ready to do something, with great pay, job security and work you can take pride in."
Shoua Thao, a 40-year-old Minnesota machinist working in CNC manufacturing, is testing AI production methods from inside the trade. "Trades are the one career path that doesn't lie," he said. "You can't hide lower skills in a trade, whereas middle management and white collar jobs are protected by the vagueness of the job."
What this means for investors
Shortages are showing up as project delays, and pay in the trades is rising. That hits builders of homes, cars and, increasingly, data centers. The AI buildout is a swing factor: big tech wants electricians, welders and fiber techs at scale, while the training pipeline is producing just over half of what the economy will need and completion rates are low.
The bottom line: labor capacity in the trades is a gating factor for construction, manufacturing and AI infrastructure.
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