Trump has a plan for Iran's oil, and he has run it before. He wants to seize Iran's main export terminal and take over its oil sales.
The model is Venezuela, and he said so out loud.
The Venezuela Playbook
Earlier this year the U.S. pushed out Venezuela's leader, Nicolás Maduro, in a military raid. Then it took over the country's oil exports.
The crude now ships to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast, while the money flows into a U.S. Treasury account. Trump wants the same setup in Iran.
The U.S. has run those oil sales since the January raid. Washington has kept control of the cash ever since.
He made the comparison himself. "Venezuela's worked out great for everybody," he told Fox News.
We connect global news like this to your money every morning in Market Briefs, and joining comes with a free investing masterclass.
Why Kharg Island Matters
Kharg Island is the heart of Iran's oil business. It handled about 90% of the country's crude shipments before the war.
Before the fighting, Kharg loaded the supertankers that carried Iranian oil to Asia. Losing it would cut Tehran off from its biggest source of cash.
The U.S. Navy has already blocked most of Iran's exports by sea. Taking Kharg would hand Washington the rest.
U.S. forces hit military targets on the island earlier in the war. But they have held back from sending in ground troops to seize it.
Choke off Kharg, and Iran's oil money mostly dries up. That is the leverage Trump is chasing.
How The Pressure Built
Trump has leaned on Iran hard all week. He is angry that Tehran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz or give up its nuclear program.
The latest flare-up started when he blamed Iran for downing a U.S. helicopter. He said the U.S. had dropped $250 million worth of bombs on Iran the night before.
He also said he would rather not bomb Iran's power plants. Talks with Tehran are still going on, he added.
Iran has refused his demands so far. Each side keeps raising the stakes, then stepping back.
Then He Backed Off
The tough talk did not last the day. Trump admitted to Fox he is not sure "America has the stomach" to take Kharg.
Hours later he cancelled the strikes he had promised for that night. He pointed to talks with Iran, and oil prices fell on the news.
What To Watch
The threat and the retreat landed within hours of each other. That is the pattern to watch with Iran right now.
For Washington, the Venezuela model turned a rival's oil into U.S.-controlled cash. Trump has said he wants the same in Iran.
Iran still claims the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's oil shipped before the war. Whether Trump wants Iran's oil or just leverage in a deal is unclear, but the Venezuela comparison was the real message.
For the five-minute morning read on oil, markets, and policy, subscribe to Market Briefs and get a 45-minute investing course as a bonus.
