Moderna Beats Q3 Estimates, Raises 2026 Revenue Growth Forecast

Big beats and clearer guidance

Moderna topped third quarter expectations with $1.31 billion in sales and earnings of 38 cents per share, versus forecasts calling for $885.1 million in revenue and a $1.25 loss per share. Shares were up about 3% in premarket trading Friday.

Revenue climbed 29% from a year ago, helped by stronger Covid vaccine demand outside the U.S. and deliveries tied to multiyear government deals. Of total revenue, $780 million came from the U.S., while $533 million was generated outside the U.S. Net income came in at $162 million, reversing a year-earlier net loss of $200 million, which had been a per share loss of 51 cents.

The company also lifted its 2026 growth outlook to a 15% to 25% range, compared with previous guidance that capped growth at 10%.

Products, launches, and geographic reach

"The new product and the diversification of geography is what has led to such a strong Q3," CEO Stéphane Bancel said. On CNBC's Squawk Box, he added that expansion in Canada, the U.K., and parts of Asia supported the quarter, and cost-cutting helped swing the company back to profitability. "It's the sales that are stronger and the costs that are also lower," he said.

Bancel said Moderna is now seeing the "full-year impact" of its updated mRNA Covid shot, cleared in the U.S. in May 2025. Because Covid orders are typically set early in the year, he characterized last year's rollout as a "small launch." He said the stand-alone flu vaccine, which won U.S. approval in August, will likewise have a "limited launch" domestically in 2026 given the calendar. A photo with the report shows Moderna's Laval, Quebec facility dated Sept. 19, 2025.

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Cancer vaccine data and market reaction

Weeks before the results, Moderna and Merck shared encouraging late-stage data for their personalized cancer vaccine used with Keytruda in certain melanoma patients. After portions of the data leaked on social media ahead of a European medical conference, investors sold the stock.

Bancel called it a "surprising reaction," noting that long-term investors and analysts who reviewed the full data were positive. He added that physicians "were so impressed with the data" and "hope to use it in their day-to-day practice." So far this year, Moderna's stock is up by more than 700%, fueled largely by enthusiasm about the shot's prospects.

Why it matters for your portfolio

In plain English: stronger sales, tighter costs, and a higher 2026 growth bar just showed up in one quarter. The mix matters too - international Covid demand and long-term government contracts helped fill the top line, while new vaccines are pacing their U.S. rollouts based on timing. Keep an eye on how the personalized cancer program shapes sentiment from here, since it already looms large in the stock story.

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