Six Flags pops on revenue beat and a growing pass base, even as October slows

Stock reaction and context

Six Flags jumped up to 25% during New York trading, marking its biggest intraday rise since November 2020. That bounce followed a rough year, with the stock down 48% through Wednesday's close.

Q3 results and attendance

The company posted net revenue of $1.17 billion for the third quarter, which beat expectations but was 11% below last year as eight parks were previously closed. Management said attendance was little changed from a year ago.

Pass base and October update

The active pass base was 7.1 million as of the end of September, a 7.1% increase on a same-park comparison from a year earlier. "Guests are increasingly visiting parks beyond their home market, providing early evidence that our strategy is driving incremental visitation, deeper guest engagement and stronger loyalty across the portfolio," Chief Executive Officer John Reilly said. October performance came in below plan following a deadly accident at the company's Georgia park that led to ride closures, alongside unfavorable weather.

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Outlook and what it means for your portfolio

Six Flags forecast fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA - defined as profit excluding interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - in a range of $140 million to $150 million, versus $167 million a year earlier. Reilly said he is confident in a recovery after the Georgia incident: "All of our research says both the Six Flags brands and the Park brands are strong." He added, "But as far as the performance in Georgia, these things are typically not a matter of years and more a matter of months if we do all the right things." For investors, the setup is simple: revenue outpacing estimates and a larger pass base help explain the relief rally, while the softer October and lower Q4 EBITDA outlook set the near-term bar.

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