Study flags China's wind push as a threat to Europe's turbine base

What the study finds

Commissioned by turbine maker Nordex and distributed within German policy circles, the Roland Berger analysis was additionally sent to the office of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The May-dated report, not previously public, argues that China's drive into Europe's wind-turbine manufacturing threatens both local industry and the resilience of the region's power systems.

It projects Germany alone could see annual manufacturing value shrink by as much as €5.6 billion, with more than 55,000 qualified roles at stake. The authors frame wind as Europe's last major clean-power manufacturing stronghold, noting solar panels and batteries are now largely produced in China.

How Chinese players are advancing

Major Chinese firms including Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Ltd. and Envision Group are hiring in Europe to gain a foothold, pitching lower cost machines that could reduce power prices. Even so, the report says they have not landed significant orders yet.

There are early roadblocks. On security grounds, the UK blocked a proposed Ming Yang plant in Scotland earlier this year, and in Germany, an offshore developer dropped its intention to deploy the company's turbines following government review. The study warns Europe's wind sector could repeat the experience of its solar industry, where domestic producers were largely displaced. It adds that Chinese wind developers have roughly a 35% cost advantage over companies in OECD member countries and can tap subsidies up to fourfold higher.

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Security and control risks

The study also flags operational risk where turbine makers retain control over crucial systems. It notes China is tightening protection of its own critical infrastructure, with Bloomberg reporting last month that Chinese wind companies are swapping European parts for domestic equipment for reasons that include security and control.

Asked about the report, a spokesperson for the German government declined to comment and said that, at the EU level, Germany generally supports a level playing field and open access to markets. A Roland Berger spokesperson confirmed Nordex commissioned the work and said a finalized edition is expected soon and could still be revised. Nordex did not respond to a request for comment.

What it means for your portfolio

If Europe cedes turbine manufacturing, the region's supply chain depth and industrial jobs could erode, even as cheaper Chinese hardware pressures project costs.

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