The ceasefire was supposed to bring prices down. It did - for about 48 hours.
Brent crude fell below $100 on April 8 after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week pause. By Thursday it was back above $100. Then on April 12, Vice President Vance said the talks had failed.
Before the war kicked off on February 28, more than 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Since the ceasefire, just two tankers - one of them Iranian - have made it through.
ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said it plainly: "The Strait of Hormuz is not open." Iran is now planning to charge tolls on any ship that tries to pass.
After talks fell apart, Trump went further - he declared a naval blockade, saying the U.S. Navy would stop ships from going in or out and block any that paid Iran's tolls.
Goldman Sachs says if the strait stays blocked one more month, Brent could average above $100 for all of 2026 - with prices climbing to $120 by Q3.
It's not just oil. Nearly 20% of the world's supply of food, plastics, and chip-making materials flows through Hormuz too.
Oil sat at $70 before the war. Now it's $100+. With talks dead, there's no clear path to closing that gap.