If you were hoping this war would wrap soon, Mark Esper is not on your side. On Thursday at the LSEG and Eurasia Group GZERO Summit in London, Trump's former Pentagon chief said the conflict could stretch "well into 2027," and could even land on the next U.S. administration's desk in about three years. Speaking to CNBC, he added he does not see an end "in the foreseeable future," forecasting a slow grind with "the American blockade," occasional bursts of violence from both sides, and a conflict that "drags along."
Eight months into the fighting, momentum has stalled. On Wednesday, Trump said a deal with Tehran "isn't really something that I want to do." Separately, reports indicate U.S. officials may restart broader combat operations within the next few weeks.
One recent image showed IRGC servicemen by an Iranian flag at what Iran says is its first training base for "self-sacrificing" forces in southern Tehran on Sept. 24, 2026.
Policy is skewing toward pressure over bargaining. During the summer, Trump unveiled a plan to ramp up sanctions and other economic measures targeting Iran, branding the effort "Economic D-Day," and his team has since promoted the results. A White House official told CNBC the U.S. is in "a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy collapsing," adding, "Iran has been decimated, and things will go one of two ways; the easy way or the hard way." The official also said, "President Trump will not be played by the Iranian regime," and, "The President is satisfied letting the inevitable Iranian collapse play out."
Esper, who headed the Pentagon between July 2019 and November 2020, has long backed the "economic strangulation" of Iran, he said. He argued the playbook only works with "time, discipline and patience," qualities he said Washington often lacks, and called it "the least worst option at this point in time." He also noted it may not actually bring Tehran back to the table, which he said is his own desired outcome.
If talks ever happen, Esper said Trump would need "a deal that returns the Strait of Hormuz to the status quo" and one "better than what [former President Barack Obama] got out of the JCPOA," which he called very hard to land. He also floated the handoff risk: "you can see another path where it gets handed off to the next administration in 2029."
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Esper's bigger message: focus. "China is our greatest adversary," he said, arguing Washington has spent more than two decades locked on the Middle East while Europe is preoccupied with Russia. He pointed to Beijing's economic, tech and diplomatic momentum, alongside what he called "the largest military buildup in history."
He told CNBC that by 2049 China has said it aims to "dominate the Indo-Pacific region and the world for all intents and purposes" and to "call the shots and dictate global governance." He said that plan has been unfolding for at least three decades, including since China joined the WTO, using the global trading system to build economic and military power. He emphasized that China dominates key supply chains spanning electric cars, critical rare-earth inputs, photovoltaic modules, and other essential materials, a position bolstered by the state's capacity to "consolidate control" and direct the economy. "They have a game plan, and they're and they're executing it," he said, urging a coordinated push with European and Asian allies across military, diplomatic, economic and technological efforts. CNBC asked the Chinese government for comment.
A conflict that could grind into 2027, with a real chance it gets passed to the team taking office in 2029, is not a one-quarter story. Layer on a long-running China contest that targets supply chains and standards through 2049, and you get a world where slow-burn risks keep seeping into prices, confidence and growth.
A longer war changes energy and fiscal planning together. Get the free Market Briefs daily newsletter and follow it.
