What AMRO found
AMRO, the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, said Monday that the region covering Southeast Asia plus China, Japan and South Korea is "particularly exposed" because it anchors global supply chains and is getting more entwined with AI-linked financial markets. A global rush to build AI has powered record exports in several Asian economies that manufacture chips and other high tech gear for data centers. AMRO estimates the Asean+3 bloc is responsible for two thirds of the recent growth in AI-related trade. At the same time, questions are piling up about how durable the boom is, with investors worried about stretched tech valuations and circular funding among firms.
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How a correction could spread
AMRO cautioned that a messy comedown could ripple through trade, cross border capital flows and borrowing costs. Market structure matters too: some exchanges, like South Korea's, are heavy with AI plays and would be vulnerable to a sharp repricing. Others, including Japan and Hong Kong, have been moving more in sync with US AI and tech assets, so shocks could be imported even without a local catalyst.
"A sharp correction in AI-related financial assets could spill over to the broader financial system through forced deleveraging and tighter credit conditions," AMRO said.
The economic hit and what to watch
The report puts numbers on the risk. If AI demand fades, AMRO estimates growth in 2027 could be up to 1.5 percentage points lower than the current 4.1% forecast. Among the additional risks AMRO flags: a prolonged issue affecting the Strait of Hormuz that could subtract 0.6 percentage point from growth, plus weather impacts tied to El Niño.
To assess whether an AI pullback is brewing, AMRO is monitoring metrics that include company valuations, leverage, funding sources, and the strength of underlying demand. "There are some warning signals, but we would say that they are not grave yet," said Runchana Pongsaparn, the lead economist, during a Monday briefing.
Bottom line: if AI fever breaks, expect the Asean+3's trade engines and credit conditions to feel it, with knock ons to growth across a region that has been powering the AI goods pipeline.
If the AI trade cools, some economies have far more riding on it than others. Get the free Market Briefs daily newsletter and understand the stakes.
