If you want a snapshot of the minerals reshuffle, start in Kazakhstan. At the heart of its strategy, Cove Capital LLC is centering on a number of Kazakh fields, and the firm is also evaluating multiple copper and other critical-mineral holdings in Uzbekistan, along with prospects in Tajikistan and the Caucasus. "We are very actively involved in a number of discussions around what we call tier-one assets," CEO Pini Althaus said.
Through its portfolio vehicle, Cove Kaz Capital Group LLC, the company bought a 70% stake this year in two Kazakh tungsten deposits. Together they hold on the order of 1.4 million tons of tungsten trioxide - about 70% of Kazakhstan's total - and the metal is used by the U.S. Department of Defense for producing ammunition, projectiles, and other arms.
Cove Kaz plans to begin tungsten output in 2030, initially around 5,000 metric tons a year and ramping to 12,000 tons at full build. A feasibility study is slated to wrap up by the end of next year, and some site preparation could start before that.
The company is working on off‑take deals under which customers pledge to purchase future output, and one could be finalized this year, Althaus said. "We are already seeing demand close to 150% of what we can produce at full capacity and this is still very early stages." He added, "The train has already left the station."
Cove pegs total investment for developing the deposits at about $1.1 billion. The U.S. Export-Import Bank put forward a letter of interest for $900 million in financing, and the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. offered a letter of interest to fund $700 million.
In April, Cove Kaz reached a merger agreement with Nasdaq-listed Skyline Builders Group Holding, a transaction that would list the private miner. The deal also covers the acquisition of Kaz Critical Minerals LLP along with its fifteen mineral licenses in Kazakhstan. According to prior reporting by the Financial Times, Donald Jr. and Eric, President Trump's older sons, stand to obtain a stake through their investment in Skyline.
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This fits a broader U.S. push to curb reliance on China for minerals vital to defense, technology and manufacturing. Last year, for the first time, five Central Asian presidents were received at the White House by Trump, and he extended invitations to the leaders of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan to attend the Group of 20 meeting scheduled in Miami in December.
Developing the Kazakh deposits could chip away at China's grip on tungsten. China accounts for about 80% of global tungsten concentrate output and holds around 2.4 million metric tons of reserves, the U.S. Geological Survey reports. Althaus said the U.S. government has a role in cutting the country's almost complete reliance on China for critical minerals, and that the transition is already in progress.
He credited top-level engagement for progress in Kazakhstan. "Had we gone in there ourselves, there would be absolutely no chance of us having secured this asset," he said, noting that last year President Trump held direct negotiations with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. "Unfortunately, the region has been overlooked for too long by US presidents from both parties," he said.
"What we are seeing now is that Central Asia has become a significant focus for President Trump and his administration." He expects the momentum to continue with future administrations, noting, "The benefits and opportunities are now clearly understood in Washington by members of both parties."
For your wallet, here is the through-line: real assets lined up with government attention, early buyer interest and a defined timeline. If off-takes are signed and financing locks in, a 2030 start that scales to 12,000 tons a year would be a tangible shift in a market where China still dominates, with knock-on effects for everything from defense supply chains to industrial tooling.
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