Malaysia, the world's number two producer, likely shipped about 1.3 million tons of palm oil in August. That median view, drawn from a Bloomberg poll of eight plantation leaders, traders and analysts, points to an 8% month-on-month decline. The slowdown lines up with weaker-than-usual festival demand in India, a key customer.
Palm oil has risen roughly 7% in the third quarter and is trading close to a two-year high. The market is bracing for possible El Niño effects that could trim output in the months ahead, and supply looks tighter as Indonesia diverts more palm oil into biofuel programs. "Demand was lower than expected because of the availability of cheaper soy oil," he said.
When markets and commodities change, steady habits pay off, so get the free Always Be Buying E-Book
Survey respondents reckon Malaysian production edged up about 2% to 1.8 million tons in August, while stockpiles likely expanded by around 6% to the most since January. Malaysia's Palm Oil Board will publish the official August figures by Sept. 10. For your wallet, the mix of softer Indian demand, weather risk and Indonesia's biofuel pull means prices could stay jumpy until those numbers land.
