Piper Sandler's Patrick Moley linked this summer's World Cup frenzy to a surge in prediction-market activity and said the football calendar could extend that run. "Given Kalshi & HOOD's US-centric user base, and the large gap in popularity between Soccer and Football in the US, we view the explosive World Cup volumes as a leading indicator of what's to come -- the NFL/[NCAA Football] season should be a significant catalyst for HOOD's 3Q26 and 4Q26 prediction market revenue," Moley wrote.
Rothera launched in June as a jointly owned prediction-market platform from Robinhood and Susquehanna. It operates as a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. Robinhood management confirmed that Rothera now has CFTC approval to offer football contracts covering wins and spreads. Following that, Moley increased his Robinhood EPS estimates by 5% for 2026 and 7% for 2027, lifted his target price to $145 from $135 (about 35% above Wednesday's close), and reiterated an overweight rating.
Robinhood still shows Kalshi's markets inside its app, but Moley estimates about 23% of prediction-market volume has migrated to Rothera from Kalshi since June. "Robinhood's shift to Rothera has accelerated the decline in its share of Kalshi's volumes," he wrote. "Last year during football season, HOOD users made up between 22% and 30% of all volume traded on Kalshi, a share that has decreased to the mid-single digits behind Kalshi's quest to acquire more of its own users," the analyst added.
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From June to August, average monthly prediction-market volume on Robinhood rose 88% versus January through May, largely on strong World Cup engagement, according to Piper Sandler. To estimate H2, the firm used Kalshi as a stand-in and projects Robinhood users will trade around 29.7 billion event contracts between September and December, leading to roughly $320 million of revenue and an annualized run rate of $960 million. Looking at Kalshi, football accounted for 42% of activity during the 2025 season, and roughly $14 billion was tied to NFL and NCAAF trading. But Moley expects football to be less dominant there now, noting "Major sports made up just 54% of Kalshi's mix in August 2026, down sharply from a high of 83% in November 2025." For everyday investors, the takeaway is simple: if football season pulls more retail attention into prediction markets, platforms tied to that activity could see a revenue pop that outlasts the final whistle.
