Canada sold a lot less to its biggest customer. Exports to the US slid 6.6% in July, taking the US share of Canadian exports down to 66.3%, the lowest portion since 1997 outside the pandemic years. Across all destinations, total exports dipped 2.3% while imports rose 2.2%, trimming the overall trade surplus to C$769 million.
Metals did the damage. Shipments of unwrought gold, silver and platinum, plus their alloys, fell 13.1%. Statistics Canada cited fewer foreign purchases of Canadian‑held gold, fewer deliveries to the US, and lower prices as factors. Energy was another drag, with exports down 4.4% in July for a third straight monthly decline as both crude prices and volumes slipped.
By quantity, export volumes were down 1.5% while import volumes increased 2.2%. One bright spot: sales to countries other than the US rose for a third month, up 7.4% and setting a record.
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Imports from the US inched up 1.8%, led by purchases of passenger cars and light trucks. As the largest purchaser of vehicles built in the US, Canada has seen autos become a focal point of a lingering dispute since President Donald Trump returned last year and began imposing tariffs on foreign cars. These figures reflect trade before the latest flare‑up in that conflict.
On Aug. 22, the Trump administration levied a 50% duty on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods after talks broke down. Canada's retaliatory measures are scheduled to begin next week. "Today's trade data suggests that Canadian exports were already waning in July, even before new US tariffs hit, and will probably be a slight negative to GDP in the third quarter even after accounting for some tariff front-running activity during August," said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
June's overall surplus was revised to C$4.2 billion, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a C$3.18 billion surplus in July. In July, Canada posted a C$5.9 billion ($4.3 billion) surplus with the US, the lowest since February, down from C$10.3 billion in the prior month.
For your money, the mix matters. Weaker metals and energy alongside record sales beyond the US hint at a shift in where Canadian companies find growth. If the new tariffs bite in the coming months, watch how quickly exporters pivot to those non‑US markets and whether autos keep propping up imports.
