Fresh BOJ account numbers suggest Tokyo stayed on the sidelines this week. The difference between the BOJ's new current account projection for a ¥410 billion drop and the roughly ¥700 billion slide projected on average by Central Tanshi, Ueda Yagi Tanshi and Tokyo Tanshi Research was too small to line up with a big yen-buying push like the one a month ago. As Totan Research's Yuichiro Takai put it, "It makes sense to view this as no intervention took place."
Midweek, dollar against yen briefly fell a touch over one yen. That quick slip set off chatter that Tokyo had jumped back in after last month's record campaign, but the move faded. Historically, even swings of more than 2 yen have often reflected nerves about potential action rather than actual orders from Tokyo.
The brief currency wobble looked more like traders resetting bets around the BOJ's path than anything else. Remarks from both Japanese and US officials have reinforced the view that the BOJ will lift rates in September, while also stoking talk of a quicker pace afterward or even an outsized move. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly nudged the idea that rate increases are needed.
After a burst of commentary, expectations for a hike have firmed. People with knowledge of the discussions told Bloomberg the BOJ is leaning toward a quarter point increase in September and will keep options open on how fast to tighten after that.
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Japan's top currency stewards doubled down Thursday evening on their resolve to push back against further yen weakness. Back from the G-20 finance ministers meeting - and after meeting Bessent in North Carolina - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said, "We've maintained the same sense of urgency ever since the coordinated intervention, and that's still our stance today," adding, "I would emphasize that this also reflects the prime minister's view." She also noted the Treasury secretary did not issue any absolute demands that Japan act or refrain from acting.
Tokyo's previous moves offer useful context. The smallest operation since 2022 was ¥729 billion, much larger than this week's account discrepancy. When authorities have stepped in, the first salvo has typically aimed for about a 5 yen swing, followed by smaller follow ups. Roughly a month ago, Japan spent ¥15.4 trillion, or $98.5 billion, on multiple entries, with the US joining to bolster the currency in a move not seen for 28 years.
What to watch next for your money: if the BOJ does go in September and signals it might move faster later, currency swings could stay choppy. That kind of backdrop can ripple into import prices, travel costs and overseas purchases, so keep an eye on how the yen reacts as rate expectations firm up.
