Social Security's retirement fund has a clear timeline, and it is not far off. The money will likely run out late 2032.
The timing matters for people who are 61 today. They would be reaching the standard retirement age around the same time.
The youngest people already receiving benefits would be turning 68 by then.
Once the fund is empty, the law only lets Social Security pay out what it collects.
The first cuts would hit at the start of 2033.
A one-earner couple would lose about $12,700 per year.
A low-income two-earner couple would lose about $10,200 per year.
The dollar hit would be smaller for lower-income households, but it would take up a much bigger share of their monthly budget. Higher-earning couples could face cuts as large as $22,300 per year.
These dollar amounts are not adjusted for inflation, so the checks are measured in future dollars, not today's dollars.
Once inflation is factored in, the real loss in buying power would be about 15% smaller.
The latest projection is not as bad as last year's. The newest annual report from Social Security's trustees expects stronger revenue and lower costs in the near term, and that is why this year's numbers are smaller.
Even with that improvement, the gap between Social Security's costs and the revenue set aside for it is expected to widen.
Social Security is not the only program with a funding problem.
The issue is urgent for a simple reason: senators elected this year will still be in office when the retirement fund runs dry. Without action, retirees in every state would be affected.
Lawmakers have a few ideas on the table. They include a tax on employer compensation, a cap on Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, and a six-figure limit on benefits, with some aim at bringing in more revenue and others at slowing the growth of payouts.
The bottom line: These projections are not fixed. They are what existing law produces if nothing changes, and lawmakers can rewrite that law.
For people close to retirement, this matters because the squeeze could arrive right when they need the money most. The dates are not far away, and the dollar figures are real, even if the final outcome depends on the decisions made by those in power.