What the survey measured
AmCham Shanghai's latest China Business Report, based on responses from 262 members, finds confidence recovering after four straight years of record lows. The business group, founded in 1915, notes relations between China and the US have steadied since Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a tariff truce last October. The two leaders are set to gather in Washington later this month, with trade imbalances among the topics expected to take center stage and their deal up for renewal in November unless extended.
Investment, competition and tensions
Optimism has broadened: 58% of companies now feel positive about the next five years in China, a 17 percentage point jump from 2025. Profitability also improved, with 78% of firms turning a profit in 2025, the best since 2019. Investment appetite picked up too, as 28% increased spending in China last year, a four-year high. At the same time, the proportion diverting intended China outlays to other countries dropped by eight points to 39%, marking a multi-year low, a trend the survey attributes to volatile US tariff policies that have made alternative locations less attractive.
Competitive pressures at home are the new headache. For the first time since 2022, more companies flagged domestic competition as their top challenge than bilateral tensions. Local rivalry was cited by 68% of respondents, up five points, while those pointing to US-China tensions dropped 13 points to 53%.
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Why it matters for your portfolio
The backdrop feels calmer, and business plans are adjusting to match.
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