Top economic officials from Washington and Beijing are spending Sunday in back-to-back meetings to line up potential moves on artificial intelligence, tariffs, and critical minerals before Trump and Xi meet in Washington this week. The sit-down at JP Morgan Chase's headquarters in Manhattan brings together Scott Bessent, He Lifeng, and Jamieson Greer starting around 10:30 a.m., and it is expected to run all day.
On the table: the status of a trade truce that expires November 10, options to dial down duties on non-strategic goods, and how to address U.S. officials' concerns about insufficient flows of Chinese rare-earth magnets and other essential inputs. They are also zeroing in on AI risk controls in light of reporting about major security lapses tied to advanced models.
Bessent, He, and Greer have spent the last 16 months meeting in European and Asian cities to prepare potential agreements for the leaders. Those efforts produced a November 2025 cease-fire reached in Busan, South Korea, limiting U.S. duties on Chinese imports to roughly 20% during Trump's second term, after earlier back-and-forth hikes had pushed rates on both sides into the triple digits.
Afterward, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump-era tariffs imposed via a national emergencies statute, among them actions tied to fentanyl trafficking. Since then, the administration has relaunched tariff measures using different legal authorities, reinstating a 12.5% levy on Chinese goods due to forced labor allegations and is nearing completion of a distinct tariff inquiry intended to rein in what it says is rampant excess industrial capacity in China.
Some unfinished business from the leaders' May meeting in Beijing is back on the agenda: both sides agreed to begin talks to reduce tariffs on non-strategic items through a "Board of Trade" mechanism, alongside a similar forum for targeted investment issues. Beijing also pledged to boost its annual buys of U.S. agricultural products by $17 billion and to place orders for over 200 Boeing aircraft.
Analysts are bracing for incremental progress, not fireworks. "I think there will be some show of deliverables because of the fact that it's a presidential summit coming, but I don't feel like we're on the verge of some sort of breakthrough," said Anna Ashton, founder of Ashton Intelligence. "I think status quo is probably both sides' general best expectation."
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The AI component is crucial, as the U.S. and China are the primary drivers of cutting-edge AI and its worldwide deployment. Rare earths are part of that story since they are crucial for the advanced semiconductor technology that powers AI.
On Friday, Bessent said he expects the discussions to cover "both open- and closed-weight models." Put simply, open-weight systems expose key components to the public, enabling users to download and fine-tune them for particular jobs. U.S. companies have increasingly adopted Chinese open-weight models, partly because they often cost less than closed-weight offerings from Anthropic, OpenAI, and other American providers. "The United States remains the leader in AI. And we are open to discussions on avoiding shared risks and avoiding bifurcation of our two systems," Bessent said, who has also urged both countries to set AI guard rails to keep powerful models away from malign non-state actors.
On minerals, the Busan truce included a Chinese commitment to restore flows of critical materials to U.S. and global users. A senior U.S. official said Friday that performance on that pledge "has not been up to par," setting up another tough conversation on Sunday.
Policy plumbing is moving alongside the headline negotiations. Reuters reported Friday that the administration is drafting regulations expected to permit U.S. pharmaceutical companies to invest in promising Chinese medicines and enter into licensing deals. China's Ministry of Commerce said Saturday that He will also lead a group of Chinese firms visiting the U.S. for economic and trade talks before the summit, echoing the delegation of U.S. CEOs that Trump took to Beijing in May.
Trump has also signaled openness to Chinese automakers building factories in the U.S., even as American auto industry groups on Friday urged him to maintain what they called an effective ban on sales of Chinese-made vehicles in the U.S., citing national security.
What matters for your money is the direction, not the drama. Any movement on the November 10 truce or tweaks to non-strategic tariffs could ripple into import-heavy categories. Clearer mineral flows influence everything from chip supply to AI hardware costs. And shared AI guard rails, plus potential openings like pharma investment pathways, point to where cross-border deal flow might thaw or tighten next.
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