US and Chinese negotiators are exploring a narrow tariff deal that puts American energy and agricultural exports in the mix, according to people familiar with the quiet talks. The same conversations include lowering duties on Chinese components that US manufacturers rely on.
A slice of Chinese goods could shift to most-favored-nation treatment, the standard tariff many partners get. The contours line up with an earlier plan for roughly $30 billion in reciprocal reductions, the people said, who asked not to be named.
If they land it, next week's leaders' meeting could serve as the moment to extend the tariff truce first reached in October 2025.
Farm trade looks set to play a starring role. Two people familiar with the planning said representatives from state-owned trader Cofco may travel with President Xi Jinping for his meeting with President Donald Trump. They added that more than a dozen companies are being weighed for a CEO delegation, though the roster is not yet set.
China has been methodically moving to fulfill a commitment to purchase 25 million tons of US soybeans each year through 2028, and it has already surpassed the halfway mark toward this year's quota. Beyond soy, Beijing has committed to purchase at least $17 billion a year in additional US agricultural products, with the 2026 goal prorated, the White House said in May.
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Speaking to Fox News this month, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he expects "announcements on agriculture and non-tariff barriers related to agriculture" during Xi's visit. He added that he expects the Board of Trade to roll out measures covering toys, games and fireworks that could insulate those products from future tariffs or other trade moves. Such actions would underscore that the Board of Trade - established in May during a meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing - is starting to yield outcomes.
Trump has said Xi will visit the White House on Sept. 24, with a state dinner on the calendar. China has not confirmed travel dates yet, which it typically does only shortly before a trip.
During Trump's state trip to China in May, he was accompanied by more than a dozen CEOs, among them Nvidia's Jensen Huang and Tesla's Elon Musk. The group met with Li Qiang, after which Xi told them US companies "are deeply involved in China's reform and opening up, a process from which both sides have benefited."
Any agreement now would be modest given that two-way trade topped $400 billion in the year's first eight months. Still, it would signal both sides can keep the relationship on track despite widening differences over artificial intelligence, export controls and Taiwan, and that the Board of Trade can produce some tangible outcomes. Requests for comment went unanswered by the Office of the US Trade Representative, China's Ministry of Commerce and Cofco.
Lower duties on inputs could trim costs for manufacturers that buy parts from China, while relief tied to US energy and farm exports would spotlight producers tied to those flows. The soybean volumes and the separate commitment to at least $17 billion a year in US ag goods matter for the companies moving, processing and financing that demand.
If toys, games and fireworks get some protection from future trade measures, importers in those niches may face a bit less policy whiplash. Bottom line, if the summit locks in targeted tariff relief and extends the truce, businesses in these lanes could see a steadier backdrop heading into fall.
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