Russian seaborne oil exports inch higher as refinery strikes pause, then restart

Shipments edge up as weekly loadings climb

Based on tanker data, Russia's four-week average to Nov. 1 was 3.65 million barrels a day, up by 60,000 barrels a day versus the revised period ending Oct. 25. Weekly numbers moved higher too. In the week to Nov. 1, 38 tankers completed loading 27.8 million barrels, compared with a revised 27.12 million on 37 ships the prior week. That works out to 3.97 million barrels a day, the strongest in five weeks.

Weekly totals often fluctuate due to weather, maintenance, sanctions, military activity, and when ships actually depart. Even so, across the latest 28-day stretch, the four-week gross value of seaborne crude exports edged up to $2.66 billion per week, a three-week high.

Refinery attacks paused, then resumed, shifting the crude balance

At the end of last week, attacks on Russian refineries started up again, with at least four facilities hit since Friday. The sites hit included the Novokuibyshevsk facility in the Samara region, a refinery in Ufa in Bashkortostan, Kstovo where the Norsi refinery is located, and Yaroslavl to the northeast of Moscow.

That renewed barrage followed almost two weeks without attacks, overlapping with President Trump's call to halt them. When refineries are hit, crude that cannot be processed is pushed into export streams, which can lift overseas flows. A pause lets repairs catch up, pulling barrels back into domestic processing. In 2023, Russia diverted about 500,000 barrels a day previously sent by pipeline to Europe into seaborne routes.

Pipeline hub hit, Kazakh flows briefly interrupted

Early Monday, a suspected Ukrainian drone struck an oil pumping station in Samara, briefly stopping the intake of Kazakh crude into Russia's pipeline system. The Samara hub routes barrels from western Siberia and Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and to Ust-Luga on the Baltic. Flows of Kazakh crude restarted on Tuesday, and the interruption doesn't appear likely to affect exports from those terminals in the next week.

During the week, three cargoes of Kazakhstan's Kebco grade left Novorossiysk. Beginning at the start of September, Moscow routed all Kazakh crude via the Black Sea port, which freed additional space for Russian shipments at Ust-Luga, considered the safer option. Shipments labeled as Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade - transported by KazTransoil JSC via Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga - do not count toward Russia's export totals and are excluded from European Union sanctions and the price cap. Kazakhstan blends its oil with Russian-origin barrels to create a uniform stream and rebranded its shipments after the invasion of Ukraine to distinguish them from Russian cargoes.

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Buyers, prices and what to watch next

Over the 28-day period ending Nov. 1, observed shipments to Asia - counting trips lacking a declared final port - averaged 3.52 million barrels a day, compared with a revised 3.41 million previously. Over the same span, shipments to Moscow's remaining Mediterranean buyers averaged about 130,000 barrels a day, down from a revised 180,000. Within that, roughly 80,000 barrels a day was bound for Turkey, down from 130,000, while flows to Egypt eased to about 50,000 barrels a day after reaching as high as 160,000 in mid June. Since August, there have been no shipments to Syria, following the country's agreement to "drastically" curb Russian oil imports in the course of talks with the US about lifting remaining sanctions.

Destinations may be revised higher once nearly 2 million barrels a day of in-transit cargoes declare a final port. Historically, most tankers showing interim stops such as Suez, Port Sudan or Singapore have ended up in India or China. On pricing, a modest increase in total flows and a 16th consecutive gain in Pacific ESPO prices were mostly balanced by cheaper Urals. On a weekly basis, the gross value of exports was roughly steady at about $2.78 billion, as lower prices across all grades balanced higher volumes.

Moscow has stepped up strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine in advance of US mediated talks scheduled for Nov. 10 to 11 in the United Arab Emirates. The working level meeting is not expected to bring an immediate halt to fighting. The bottom line: watch volumes, routes and grade prices. The next update in this weekly series on Russian crude shipments and their gross value lands Tuesday, Nov. 10.

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