Trump says no immediate Iran strike after Democrats' landslide midterm win

What Trump said, and the political backdrop

Trump told the Financial Times he does not intend to order strikes right now, saying, "We seem to be getting everything we want," He added the US remains prepared if needed: "I'm ready, we're ready. We're locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it."

Later, he argued the war was not a main factor in the Republican defeat, telling Fox News, "People understood the importance of what I've done with Iran" and "You can't let the number one state sponsor of terror have a nuclear weapon." Democrats' sweep sets up a short stretch in which Trump could either slow his approach or move before the new Congress takes office in early January.

Oil, diplomacy, and the temperature on both sides

Brent fell again Wednesday, down almost 2% to $101.70, per ICE and Bloomberg. Even so, crude is still up almost 70% this year, largely on the war and a series of Iranian assaults against vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Saxo Bank AS's Ole Sloth Hansen, who heads commodity strategy, said, "The big question now is what lies ahead on the foreign policy front and specifically the Middle East crisis." He added, "The market seems to be betting Trump wants to put it behind him, raising the prospect for some sort of deal."

Tehran says it is ready for strikes to begin at any moment and will hit back hard. Its reprisals have shaken the Persian Gulf and wider region, as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia were hit from late February until a cease-fire in early April by thousands of Iranian drone and missile attacks.

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Talks, warnings, and a risky window

Qatar and Pakistan are mediating US Iran talks, but progress has been limited in recent weeks. According to Bloomberg on Tuesday, Qatari officials anticipate receiving responses from both sides to the new proposals in roughly a day. The sides remain apart: Iran is pressing the US to remove the naval blockade on its ports, while Washington is seeking concessions on Tehran's nuclear activities.

Inside Iran, President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has granted his government more authority to pursue peace talks, potentially covering areas once deemed "non-negotiable." Parliament speaker and senior US negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the midterms showed Americans voted "NO TO WAR," and warned the US of a "nightmare" if mass attacks resume.

Harvard research fellow and Kuwait University political scientist Hamad Althunayyan said, "The midterms just delivered a clear political signal against the war, but the next several weeks carry a high risk of military escalation before the new Congress is sworn in." After January, he sees blame shifting between the president and Congress as the most likely outcome.

The war's arc, fuel prices, and what it means for your portfolio

In late February, US and Israeli strikes on Iranian sites set off the war and killed senior officials, among them former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Gulf Arab states are urging more time for diplomacy.

Higher fuel costs have weighed on sentiment at home, with diesel setting a US record and average gasoline topping 4 dollars a gallon, a jump that contributed significantly to opposition to the war. The bottom line: headline risk stays high. Firming diplomacy likely keeps crude in check, while any signal of pre January escalation could revive volatility across energy, shipping, and defense stocks.

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