Customs figures released Monday show working-day adjusted exports leapt 89.8% from a year earlier for Sept. 1-20, topping the initially reported 61.5% advance recorded in Aug. 1-20. Without adjustments, outbound goods rose 78.3% and inbound shipments increased 26.7%, producing a near $23 billion surplus.
Semiconductors were the standout, up 259.4% from a year ago. Energy-related products added support with petroleum shipments up 47.8%, and car exports gained 9.3%. Demand was broad across markets: sales to China grew 113.8%, to the US 118%, to Vietnam 44.8%, and to the European Union 37%.
The latest numbers suggest South Korea's trade engine stayed in high gear as Q3 wound down, backing the Bank of Korea's judgment that the economy can tolerate tighter policy. In August, the central bank lifted its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3%, its second straight increase, citing stronger-than-expected growth and sticky underlying inflation.
Pointing to robust exports and AI-related global infrastructure investment, the BOK now projects 2026 growth at 3.3%, up from 2.6%. The six-month policy path had a median of 3.25%, suggesting one additional quarter-point increase. Governor Shin Hyun Song said that profile suggests a measured pace of tightening after the back-to-back hikes.
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Price pressures remain in focus. Headline inflation reached 3.1% in August, and core inflation, which excludes food and energy, ticked up to 3.4%, signaling firm underlying momentum. According to minutes from the August meeting, a majority on the board backed maintaining a tightening tilt to rein in inflation and financial vulnerabilities, while others argued that any additional steps should wait on new data and how the last two increases filter through.
A stronger won in recent months has helped restrain imported inflation, giving policymakers a bit more room on when to move next. Continued export strength and a healthier external balance may lend additional support to the currency. For your money, that mix means company earnings tied to global demand and currency swings could keep shaping how much spending power shows up at home.
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