Diesel just set a new mark. The nationwide average hit $6.505 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, the first time it has cleared $6.50. September's surge has intensified, with the total increase this month exceeding 87 cents amid almost daily gains, and the average retail price has now moved past the 2022 peak.
The US-Iran war has crimped global fuel flows, with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz still limited. Crude cargoes from the region have not fully returned to pre-war levels, which leaves refineries elsewhere with less oil to turn into diesel and other products. On top of that, Russia has blocked most diesel exports and could keep that curb in place through October, while Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian processing facilities.
Over the weekend, an attack hit the Moscow Oil Refinery during what was the biggest night-time bombardment this year. The result is a tighter global market for a fuel that keeps the real economy moving.
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Most drivers do not fill up with diesel, but the fuel runs trucks, farm machinery, backup generators, boats, trains, and home-heating systems, meaning its influence reaches almost all corners of the economy. With midterm elections approaching, record prices could dent support for President Donald Trump's Republican Party in farm states like Iowa and in states that rely on heating oil such as Maine. One small comfort remains: according to the Washington-based Institute for Progress, when adjusted for inflation, prices have not yet returned to their 2022 peaks.
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