Central banks are leaning toward gold. In the latest survey, 84% said that in five years gold will account for a larger share of overall reserves, compared with 76% in the prior year. Replies from both richer nations and EMDE (a category covering emerging-market and developing economies) largely matched, with the majority projecting a modest rise over that period.
One question asked what portion of total reserves - foreign exchange plus gold - could be in gold five years ahead. The chart credits YouGov and the World Gold Council and includes a disclaimer. Sample sizes for that question were:
Note 1 provides detail on the response categories.
The dollar remains the top reserve currency, but its grip has eased. IMF data from the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves indicates the US dollar's share has been slowly declining, and 74% of respondents expect its share to be smaller in five years. Both advanced-economy and EMDE participants echoed that expectation.
A separate question gauged what portion of total reserves - again, foreign exchange plus gold - might be held in US dollars five years out. The chart cites YouGov and the World Gold Council, with a disclaimer. Sample sizes were:
Note 2 explains the answer options.
Consensus is strong: 89% expect global official gold reserves to increase over the next year, a sentiment shared across both advanced economies as well as EMDE. Also notable, 11% think gold's share of total reserves will stay the same, up from 5% last year.
The question on global gold reserves over the next 12 months (sourced to YouGov and the World Gold Council, with a disclaimer) had these sample sizes:
From 2023 onward, "Don't know" was removed as an option.
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On their own balance sheets, 45% of central banks expect their gold reserves to rise over the coming year, roughly matching last year's 43%. Most anticipate no change. Even so, this marks a new record for those expecting to add, and EMDE institutions still outpace their peers in advanced economies. Among EMDE respondents roughly half expect to increase their gold, while the other half expect no change.
The institution-level question (with YouGov and World Gold Council noted as sources and a disclaimer) had these sample sizes:
"Don't know" has not been an option since 2023.
Survey respondents expect gold to represent a larger portion of official reserves in five years and the US dollar a smaller share, and they foresee continued increases in global official gold holdings over the next 12 months.
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