El Niño is turning up the heat on India's next sugar harvest, which kicks off next month, and expectations are sliding. The International Sugar Organization warned in May that a strengthening El Niño would hurt fields across Asia and leave a global shortfall of roughly 260,000 tons.
In a Bloomberg survey, 11 traders, analysts and millers projected India's gross sugar production at 29 million to 31 million tons for the year ending September 2027. For comparison, the Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association estimates the ongoing season at 31 million tons. With the monsoon running about 15% below its usual levels, bets on a tighter 2026-27 crop have helped push New York raw-sugar futures up roughly 30% this year.
India, the world's largest sugar consumer, moved to cool record domestic prices last month by letting mills and refiners bring in raw sugar without duties and by placing limits on inventories held by dealers and big users.
"The country may need to import sugar next year to build up its closing stocks," said Yatin Wadhwana, a director at Gradient Commercial Pvt., a commodity trading and advisory company, speaking at The India Sugar & Bio-Energy Conference in New Delhi this week. "Current domestic sugar prices are likely to encourage mills to produce more sugar rather than ethanol."
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Of those polled by Bloomberg, six see no sugar being redirected to ethanol. Five said India may need a second straight year of imports to rebuild pipeline stocks.
India could begin bringing in sugar in July next year to top up inventories once the current quota is used, according to Claudiu Covrig, who leads analysis at Covrig Analytics, who also expects another drop in 2027-28 output. He estimates inbound volumes could amount to between 2 million and 3 million tons.
On Thursday, Ashwini Srivastava, the food ministry's joint secretary responsible for sugar, said the government has asked mills to keep prices in check and ensure enough supply for this year's festival season. He added that authorities will keep a close eye on prices and will start monitoring production every month to sharpen supply forecasts and policy calls.
Less Indian sugar often ripples into global prices, and we are already seeing that in futures. Keep an eye on how quickly imports arrive and how the new monthly production data shifts expectations on supply and local pricing. Those signals can filter into consumer costs and sectors linked to food and beverages, which touch plenty of everyday portfolios.
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