If burgers feel pricier, that is because they are. The average price for ground beef in August reached $7.158 a pound, a 0.6% month over month rise and the highest on record. That is 7.9% above last August, with a historically small US cattle herd still squeezing supply, even as the monthly pace of gains has cooled. Not everything moved together: on a not seasonally adjusted basis, steak prices fell 1.9%.
Stubborn beef costs have been a major piece of broader food inflation and a political headache with the midterms about two months away. Shoppers showed fatigue earlier this summer, with volumes flattening even around the typically busy July Fourth holiday.
Late last month, the US Agriculture Department reopened an Arizona port of entry for live cattle from Mexico, restarting a trade that had been mostly paused for more than a year to stop the deadly New World screwworm from spreading. A USDA report indicates the facility has already received in excess of 2,500 feeder cattle. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has stated that two additional ports in New Mexico will come back online in stages.
There is more: last fall, Trump encouraged increased shipments from Argentina. And on Friday, the USDA said imports are set to account for a record 20% of US supplies this year, raising its outlook for those inflows by 2.1% from the prior month. After backlash from American ranchers over the import plans, the administration rolled out programs intended to help rebuild domestic supplies. A separate biannual USDA snapshot underscored the core issue: as of July 1, the US cattle herd was the smallest in more than five decades.
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Greater expected supply pressures prices, and late last month Chicago live cattle futures sank to intraday lows not seen since November 2025. Still, the underlying constraint is hard to wish away. But "they did not cause the problem, and I don't know that they can really fix the problem."
Meanwhile, the concentrated meatpacking sector is drawing antitrust scrutiny, with the Justice Department recently expanding an ongoing probe to include retailers Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart Inc. Processors - which blend imported lean trim with higher‑fat U.S. cattle to hit the target lean‑to‑fat mix for products like burger patties - are still losing money on beef and have closed some facilities. Tyson Foods Inc. - the biggest meatpacking company in the country - cut its annual outlook unexpectedly last week, the second time it has lowered guidance in a month.
For everyday budgets, here is the tension: imports can soften markets fast, but rebuilding the US herd is slow, and shelf prices rarely pivot on cue. Watch the push and pull between higher imports, herd-rebuilding efforts, and federal scrutiny of packers. That mix will shape what you pay at the meat case and how much pressure lands on the big food names you know.
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