What moved prices on Monday
Crude cooled after a strong Friday rally tied to repeated Houthi strikes that reignited supply risk worries. By 9:19 a.m. ET, WTI traded at $102.05 per barrel, down 1.2 percent, while Brent slipped 0.7 percent to $115.86.
Over the weekend, the Houthis said they aimed at the main airport in Riyadh and at oil facilities. Saudi authorities said Sunday they intercepted more missiles and drones, and the kingdom partially restarted activity at its primary airport despite earlier damage.
Diplomacy, partners, and the risk to supplies
The pullback arrived as Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman set meetings in Tehran on Monday with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei, according to Saudi officials. Also taking part are Pakistan's Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir and Turkey's intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin; Pakistan and Turkey participate in a security alliance with Saudi Arabia.
Traders are fixated on the vulnerability of Saudi energy infrastructure and the chance of a major hit to production, refining or export assets. That focus reflects a higher risk premium on barrels as tensions persist.
Prices, market signals, and policy moves
One snapshot for WTI Crude (Dec′26) showed a last price of 100.96, down 2.31 or 2.24 percent at 11:06 a.m. EDT, with delayed data in U.S. dollars. In the U.S., the Energy Department on Friday approved a draw of as many as 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease a supply problem at a Louisiana refinery.
Separately, energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and Singapore said the kingdom plans to start storing crude in Singapore in the second half of 2027 to strengthen its Asian supply chain.
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What investors should watch
Michael Alfaro of Gallo Partners, where he is chief investment officer, put the risk premium at "about $20 a barrel," adding, "I think the theme we're in right now is that uncertainty is off the charts." He warned the biggest constraint is refining capacity, and said disruptions could evolve into a structural challenge extending into 2027 and beyond.
Alfaro noted that while some rigs are being added, producers remain restrained on spending. "We're not really seeing major capex additions to bring new rigs on or bring new production online," he said. He added that a severe hit to the East-West pipeline or to more refining capacity could push prices up, and that additional demand erosion would likely emerge if Brent moves above $120 per barrel.
The bottom line: elevated geopolitical risk, cautious U.S. supply growth, and selective policy releases mean your portfolio could see quick swings as headlines hit.
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