Houthi forces are pressing down Yemen's Red Sea shoreline toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, tightening their hold near Mokha and around Mayunn Island, which sits in the middle of the strait. Maritime security consultant Bjorn Beirens said Mokha offers the group "a second point from which to launch further possible attacks on shipping in the region," and "a foothold from which they could push further south in a bid to get almost full control of the strait."
The cross-border strikes have not let up. CNN, citing two US officials, reported that projectiles hit a Saudi oil pipeline system on Thursday. Projectiles hit pump stations along the route, and authorities temporarily closed the pipeline as a precaution. Saudi Arabia's government media office didn't immediately respond to questions sent on Friday, the kingdom's weekend.
As war with the US and Israel has flared, Iran has slowed movement through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing more Saudi crude to the Red Sea. More Houthi influence around Bab el-Mandeb would hand the group another way to unsettle a second energy chokepoint, potentially adding pressure to already elevated oil prices and making it harder for Saudi Arabia to protect its economy from turmoil across the region.
Saudi Arabia can escalate a campaign that began with its 2015 intervention yet failed to break the Houthis' grip on power, or accept growing rebel leverage along the Red Sea. "Saudi Arabia can provide more military and financial support to the Yemeni government and try to strengthen the forces fighting the Houthis, but the recent developments have shown that Saudi support alone may not be enough to reverse the situation on the ground," said Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen with the International Crisis Group.
In 2022, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman moved to de-escalate the war and mend relations with Iran.
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In August, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, declaring that a strike on any signatory would be treated as a strike on every member. Pakistan has argued that Houthi attacks could activate the pact's mutual-defense provision, yet none of the three has urged invoking it in response to the latest incidents.
Axios reported, citing two unnamed US officials, that MBS called President Donald Trump twice on Thursday urging strikes on the Houthis. Washington has so far stayed out. The US is already engaged in a widely opposed conflict with Iran, and launching direct strikes on the Houthis again - after doing so in 2024 and last year - could open another front even as the administration seeks to limit political and economic blowback.
"The US could intervene with airstrikes if the Saudis convince them but airstrikes alone won't change much," said Nadwa al-Dawarsi, a Middle East Institute researcher and conflict analyst. "The US bombed the Houthis for months, and here we are." She added that to truly contain the threat, forces linked to Yemen's internationally recognized government must retake and hold territory.
In August, Saudi crude exports were down roughly one-third from the prior month, to about 3 million barrels per day. If the Houthis consolidate more sway near Bab el-Mandeb while Iran targets ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran's broader position strengthens and the odds of fresh disruptions to oil flows rise.
On the ground, Saudi-backed Yemeni forces are divided and have struggled to stop the latest Houthi push without more Saudi air support and assistance. "Nobody should expect southerners to die defending the north for a government that has given them no stake in their own future," said Amr el-Bidh, the Southern Transitional Council's special representative. According to him, January marked a setback for the Saudis after they took apart the UAE-backed STC and left "nothing in its place." That leaves Riyadh confronting emboldened Houthis with fewer dependable partners.
Bottom line for everyday investors: watch the chokepoints. Gains around Mokha and Mayunn, ongoing strikes inside Saudi Arabia, and political fractures among anti-Houthi forces all tilt risks toward tighter oil supply and pricier shipping.
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