What happened
Cofco Corp., China's state crop trader, has made inquiries about buying US soft red winter wheat to be shipped to China, according to people familiar with the matter. They said the cargoes would be loaded in the new year and asked not to be named because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Phone calls to Cofco's Beijing office went unanswered and an email drew no immediate reply.
Why it matters
After President Donald Trump met President Xi Jinping in September, statements from both governments indicated China is set to reduce tariffs on various US farm commodities - wheat, corn and sorghum among them. Those planned cuts are part of a broader effort to lower duties tied to roughly $30 billion of imports for each country. Cofco's feeler is the first tangible hint that the expected tariff move could translate into fresh Chinese buying of major grains.
What it means for your portfolio
China's purchasing framework calls for at least $17 billion a year in US farm goods through 2028, alongside a commitment to buy no less than 25 million tons of US soybeans annually. State buyers have been steadily working toward the soybean goal, but progress on other crops has lagged, and the US has not booked any wheat or corn sales to China in the current marketing year. On the demand side, China's wheat stocks are comfortable after another bumper harvest. Imports have increased off the lows, yet remain well under earlier peaks, with overall usage described as subdued.
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According to the US Department of Agriculture, China is expected to reap more than 140 million tons of wheat in 2026-27, while bringing in 6 million tons via imports - a figure that tops the previous year but remains over 50% below the 2023-24 record. The bottom line: watch for any confirmed tariff changes and follow-on grain tenders, as either could sway wheat, corn, and soybean pricing in your portfolio.
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