Inflation watchers are narrowing in on a tight range for next year's benefits increase. Independent analyst Mary Johnson now sees a 3.5% cost-of-living adjustment after incorporating Friday's consumer price figures, up from her 3.4% estimate in August. AARP on Friday lifted its forecast to 3.6%, while the Senior Citizens League lowered its outlook to 3.5% from 3.6% a month earlier. If those projections hold, 2027 would deliver the largest COLA in three years.
At 3.5%, the Senior Citizens League calculates the typical monthly Social Security check would rise by $67.90. According to AARP, a 3.6% increase would lift a typical retired worker's monthly check by $75. For comparison, the Social Security Administration reports that about 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income recipients received a 2.8% increase in 2026.
The COLA is set by how much third-quarter prices rise from one year to the next, based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. In August, CPI-W was 3.5% higher than a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The broader consumer price index climbed 3.4% year over year as prices moved higher in August. Johnson noted the projection could shift with oil's ups and downs, saying oil prices have had a meaningful influence on inflation since the start of the Iran war.
The official 2027 COLA will reflect an additional month of federal inflation figures. The Social Security Administration customarily reveals the coming year's change in October. Over the past decade, COLAs have ranged from 0% in 2016 all the way to 8.7% in 2023, the biggest increase in four decades amid elevated inflation.
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The agency said in October that the 10-year average has been about 3.1%. For your budget, the takeaway is simple: the final number will tell you whether your monthly benefit lands closer to a roughly $68 or $75 increase, or somewhere between.
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