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El Niño Has 75% Chance To Become "A Historic Event," U.S. Forecasters Say

Nate Gregory
Published Sep 10, 2026
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Summary:
  • The US Climate Prediction Center sees a 75% chance this El Niño becomes "a historic event," eclipsing records back to 1950.
  • Forecasters expect it to intensify through year end, upping the odds of well known global weather shifts.
  • It has already curbed vessel movements in the Panama Canal and boosted palm oil costs, compounding inflation and supply-chain strain that the war in Iran has already intensified.

What forecasters are seeing

If it feels like the weather has been out of character, you are not imagining it. In a Thursday update, the US Climate Prediction Center said El Niño emerged in June and has been strengthening since. They track it by how much warmer than normal the equatorial Pacific's surface waters run. In a key monitoring zone, readings are currently 1.8C above average, or 3.24F.

How strong it could get

The center said those waters could climb past 2.5C above normal, which would set a new record. The benchmark to surpass is 1982 to 1983, when readings hit 2.4C on the metric known as the relative oceanic Nino index (RONI). The warmer the Pacific, the more it can reshape atmospheric circulation and tilt weather patterns worldwide.

What it is already doing

While it fuels a stretch of storms spanning the Pacific from Hawaii through China, Atlantic hurricane activity has been pushed to near-record lows not seen since 1941. On land, drought across Central America has choked the flow of ships in the Panama Canal, and blazes in Indonesia have driven palm oil prices higher. Together, these snags are feeding inflation and supply-chain pressure that the war in Iran has already made worse.

Weather and global events can affect portfolios, so steady stewardship protects your financial future. Join Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh on September 29th for a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, where he shows how we're spotting investment opportunities as the dollar falls. Save your spot.

What winter could bring

Forecasters expect more turbulence in the months ahead: higher flood risk in California, drier conditions in parts of Australia, and hotter weather spanning India and southern Asia. For budgets and travel plans, that can translate into pricier food inputs like palm oil, shipping delays, and weather volatility that nudges everyday costs.

When uncertainty gathers, keeping a calm plan helps your savings grow and stay safe. Our CEO Jaspreet Singh is hosting a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, on September 29th. Sign up free to join him live.

Disclosure

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Blogs

September 10, 2026
US National Debt Hits $40 Trillion: Why the Economy Hasn't Collapsed Yet
By Nate Gregory
  • The US national debt crossed $40 trillion in 2026 and is growing faster than the economy. The debt to GDP ratio now sits at 125%, the highest outside the pandemic and higher than World War II.
  • On September 9, 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rolled out an emergency plan for the government to lend money to itself. Ray Dalio now says the dollar has roughly three years before real pain.
  • Empires rarely default. They debase. Since 1971, median household income grew about 8x while houses grew 17x and the S&P 500 grew 360x, so investors got richer while workers fell behind.
Read More
September 9, 2026
Your 401k Is Fueling the AI Bubble
By Andre Savage
  • About $10 trillion of 401k money sits in a $77 trillion stock market, mostly through target date funds and S&P 500 funds. Roughly 30% of every S&P 500 dollar lands in five AI-heavy tech stocks.
  • Four bubble signals run hotter today than before the 2000 crash: top-ten concentration, tech's share of the index, the Buffett Indicator, and how much of the market index funds own.
  • You only lock in an AI bubble loss if you sell. The 2022, 2020, 2008, and 2000 crashes were all buying windows for long-term investors, and the US-China AI race means government money could keep flowing in.
Read More
September 9, 2026
What Is Wealth Preservation? How To Protect Your Money From Anything
By Nate Gregory
  • Wealth preservation is an investing strategy built around keeping the money you've already made instead of chasing growth.
  • It leans on assets that hold steady when markets fall - gold, Treasury bonds, and companies that keep earning through wars, crashes, and pandemics.
  • The tradeoff is real: you give up some upside, and the two key numbers to check are maximum drawdown and correlation to the market.
Read More
September 8, 2026
Why Is Everything So Expensive? Why Prices May Never Come Back Down
By Cierra Seay
  • Official inflation is 3.4% and prices are up 32% since 2020, but rent (41%), gas (47%), car insurance (64%) and ground beef (79%) all outran the 28% median wage.
  • The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation on purpose. Rising prices push extra dollars to investors and shrink the real cost of a $40 trillion national debt.
  • Investors who simply owned the S&P 500 gained about 150% over the same six years, and the Fed's September 16 decision will show whether it protects the dollar or the economy first.
Read More
September 7, 2026
The U.S. Housing Market Just Flipped: Renting a Home Now Beats Buying One
By Kalbir Talwar
  • The US is in a buyer's market in 41 of the 50 largest metro areas, but prices sit near record highs and mortgage rates are close to 7%.
  • The same median house costs 27% more than it did in 2021 while the monthly payment costs 90% more, and incomes rose a little more than 10%.
  • A 2008-style crash is not showing up in the data, so the pressure is landing on buyers instead of prices.
Read More
September 4, 2026
An Interest Rate Hike in 2026? The Fed Just Broke Its Own Script
By Nate Gregory
  • The Federal Reserve spent a year signaling cheaper money, and its new chairman just warned that an interest rate hike may be coming instead.
  • The Fed is stuck between high inflation and a weak job market, and fixing one makes the other worse.
  • Higher rates also reprice roughly a third of America's $40 trillion national debt this year, which is why Washington wants cuts so badly.
Read More
September 3, 2026
5 Passive Income Ideas That Pay You Whether You Work or Not
By Jackson Moreland
  • School teaches one formula: work, earn, spend. Stop working and the money stops, so the wheel never ends.
  • Five assets pay you without your labor - dividends, rent, interest, royalties, and the things you already own.
  • $80,000 a year of cash flow takes about $1 million invested at 8%, or roughly 20 years of $1,000 a month.
Read More
September 2, 2026
The Best Way to Invest 10k: Three Options To Transform 10K into 10 Million
By Kalbir Talwar
  • Passive investing in stocks or real estate targets around 10% a year, and time in the market matters more than the price you get in at.
  • Active investing means putting your time in alongside your money, which raises the target to roughly 20% a year and raises the risk of losing it all.
  • Investing in yourself has no ceiling, because a new skill can create a new income that no market return can match.
Read More
September 1, 2026
The Tax Write Offs the Rich Are Using in 2026 While the IRS Shrinks
By Milena Thomas
  • The 2026 tax brackets landed lower than they were headed, and the standard deduction jumped from a planned $8,350 to $16,100 for single filers.
  • New write offs for overtime, tips, seniors and car loan interest are live now, and most of them are written to expire in 2028.
  • About a third of IRS auditors have been fired, and four assets do most of the work for people who want income without a matching tax bill.
Read More
August 31, 2026
America Is Running Out of Debt Buyers. Treasury Bills Are the Government's Fix
By Nate Gregory
  • The government took in about $5 trillion in taxes in 2025 and spent about $7 trillion, and the national debt is now over $40 trillion.
  • Investors, banks, and foreign countries are all lending less to the U.S., so starting September 9 the government plans to sell more short-term treasury bills and use that cash to buy back its long-term debt.
  • Government interest rates set the floor for your mortgage, your car loan, and your credit card, and short-term Treasury ETFs like SGOV are one way investors are playing it.
Read More
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