Bitcoin has only been this cheap twice before in the last decade.
The first was during the COVID crash in March 2020, and the second came when FTX blew up in November 2022. Both times, a major rebound followed.
The Model Flashing A Rare Signal
Bitcoin slipped under $66,000 on Wednesday, pushing it to the bottom of something called the Power Law corridor - a long-term price model that tracks where Bitcoin "should" trade based on how the network grows over time.
The model was built by physicist Giovanni Santostasi, who plots Bitcoin's price on a curve that bends as the network gets bigger and growth gradually slows.
Right now, Bitcoin is sitting near the floor of that curve, which according to checkonchain data means it has only been cheaper than it is today for about 4% of its entire trading history.
Put another way: for roughly 95.6% of the days Bitcoin has ever traded, it was more expensive than it is right now.
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The Last Two Times This Happened
The first visit to this zone came in March 2020, when the pandemic hit and every asset on Earth got dumped at once - Bitcoin lost half its value in a day, falling from around $8,000 to under $4,000 before tripling within a few months.
The second visit was November 2022, when FTX - one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world - collapsed overnight and dragged Bitcoin below $16,000. By the end of 2023, it had more than doubled to over $42,000.
In both cases, the rebound started within weeks of the low, and by the time the news cycle caught up to what was happening on-chain, the easy gains were already gone.
Different crisis each time, but the same setup: a sharp drop to the floor of the Power Law, followed by a recovery that played out over the next 12 to 18 months.
What To Watch
The Power Law is not a guarantee, and Bitcoin has no shortage of reasons to keep falling from here.
One theory making the rounds blames this week's drop on Iran-related sanctions selling rather than the usual macro suspects, which would mean the pressure could ease as fast as it arrived.
But there are also broader risks in play - rate uncertainty, a stronger dollar, and a crypto market with thinner buyer demand than a year ago.
For long-term holders, the read is simple: Bitcoin is trading at one of its deepest discounts to trend in over a decade. The last two times that happened, the next 12 months looked very different from the panic in the moment.
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