Before Argentina's 2023 election, 108 economists signed a warning letter. They said Javier Milei's plan could wreck the economy.
Two years later, the numbers point the other way.
Milei took office in December 2023, and the economy was a mess. Prices were soaring and growth was shrinking.
Inflation was running at 211%. Exports had slipped to about $5 billion a month.
The warning was loud. The letter included big names like Thomas Piketty.
The signers came from around the world. Some had advised world leaders for years.
Many feared a deep slump and lost jobs. The mood was grim heading into the vote.
It said his plan was "fraught with risks" and could "cause more devastation in the real world."
That is about as close to one voice as the field gets.
They were betting hard that his plan would fail. The early results have gone the other way.
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The fix was old-fashioned belt-tightening. Milei cut state aid and shut government offices.
He also stopped funding the deficit. That flipped the budget to a surplus.
There was more to the plan than cuts. He reset the exchange rate and let the dollar play a bigger role.
He also reopened the country to outside markets. That brought in fresh trade and competition.
His plan echoed an old playbook. Many likened it to the way Reagan ran the U.S. in the 1980s.
The early pain was real for many. Then the key numbers began to turn.
The results came fast. Inflation dropped to about 32% by April, down from that brutal 211%.
Exports tell the same story. They climbed to nearly $9 billion in a single month.
That is almost double where they sat when he arrived. Foreign money came back too.
A $20 billion swap line from the US Treasury helped steady the peso. Inflows then hit a record $18.8 billion late in 2025.
Energy added to the rebound. Oil output has risen about 32% since he took office.
Gas output is up about 11% as well. Both gave the country more to sell abroad.
Not everything is fixed. Poverty has grown even as prices cooled.
Wages and savings took years of damage. Many families are still climbing back.
Milei still has critics at home. They warn the gains may not last.
A year of good numbers does not undo decades of pain. Still, the early scorecard is hard to argue with.
The economy grew 4.4% last year. One analyst put it plainly: Milei "really knows his stuff."
For now, the trend is clear. Argentina is in far better shape than feared.
The economists made their call. The data is making a different one.
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