China has barely bought a new Boeing in close to ten years.
That could change next week. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg will fly with President Trump on a state trip to Beijing on May 14 and 15.
A possible order for as many as 500 jets is on the table. For Boeing, that would be one of the biggest single deals in its long history.
The package being talked about would be one of the largest commercial jet orders ever signed. Most of it would lean on the 737 MAX 8 and MAX 10.
Those are the workhorse planes Chinese carriers use for short and medium-haul flights. Some 787 Dreamliners and 777X widebodies could come along for the ride.
That would give Boeing a foothold in China's growing long-haul market. An order that size could keep Boeing's lines running for years.
It would also send a clear signal: China is willing to buy from Boeing again. That alone could shift how investors view the firm's path back.
For investors, Boeing's whole turnaround story rides on signals like this one. Market Briefs covers the moves Wall Street is watching - every weekday morning, plus a free investing class when you join.
Chinese airlines used to be one of Boeing's biggest buyers. That changed after the 737 MAX groundings, the US-China trade war, and the pandemic flipped the math.
China shifted to Airbus, while Beijing poured cash into homegrown jet maker COMAC.
COMAC's C919 narrowbody is now flying in China. It goes head-to-head with the 737 MAX.
That makes any new Boeing order a political move on both sides. A deal would signal China is willing to ease up on its all-home plan.
It would also signal that Washington and Beijing are using jets as the carrot for broader trade easing. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser is also set to make the trip.
Big jet deals tend to come with big talk on tariffs. Trump has used aircraft orders as a chip in past trade talks. Beijing knows this and may push back on other fronts in return.
A signed order would do more than rescue a single quarter for Boeing. It would mark the end of one of the longest droughts in the firm's history with its second-biggest market.
The wrinkle: COMAC isn't standing still. Chinese rules still favor the home jet maker.
Even with a signed deal, China will likely keep ramping up COMAC orders too. Ortberg took the top job in 2024 and has spent the past year trying to fix Boeing's plant problems.
A win in China would also help him reset talks with US carriers like United and Delta. Both have been waiting on late deliveries.
Boeing wants the order, and the Chinese state still wants COMAC. Whatever gets signed in Beijing will tell investors which side blinked.
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